Wednesday, June 25, 2008

GOR, Late June Entry

I’m back after my hiatus and here’s what’s on my mind:

NBA Draft
The 2008 NBA Draft is tomorrow (Thursday, June 26) and the Cavaliers actually have a first round pick at 19 overall. If they are smart, they will package that pick and players for an established NBA player who can consistently score the basketball.

Their needs are plenty – consistent scoring, shooting, athleticism and post defenders with shot-blocking abilities. Other than that, they are set. Right.

The Cavaliers do not have many pieces to trade that other teams want as we all know, so including a mid-round #1 in a deal might be able to get them over the hump and get them some real help for LJ.

If they keep the pick, a wise-man told me they should take Chris Douglas-Roberts out of Memphis if he is there at 19. That wise-man is my son, who has been right more often than not in the past when it comes to draft picks – see L. Tomlinson over G. Warren. I trust his judgment more than the guys making most of these picks (See S. Brown, C. Mihm, etc…).

I have no opinion on who they should take if they retain the pick for two reasons.

First, I have not seen enough college basketball to make an educated judgment, and secondly, I have stated I would deal the pick for immediate help. LJ only has two years left on his deal and if they have any hope of keeping him beyond that point, they’d better move fast and add real talent.

Lakers-Celtics
I want to take this opportunity and tell you how stupid I can be.

Several weeks ago I picked the Lakers to defeat the Celtics in the NBA Finals. Why? Because I believed Kobe Bryant was the best player in the series and his supporting cast overall was better than the Celtics.

I again went against my first rule in sports – always take the better defensive team. I also made that mistake this spring in picking the Wizards over the Cavaliers in the post-season. I doubled down on that stupidity in the Finals.

Add the fact that I had the Celtics in the Finals before the season began, eventually losing to the Spurs, should have been enough for me to ride that horse till the end.

So what if the Spurs didn’t make it. If I felt in November the Celtics were good enough to reach the Finals, I had no reason to jump off that wagon and hitch my saddle to Kobe and company, even though they came from the alleged better conference.

The West has better offensive players in it. That does not make it clearly better. The style of play out West is different and since we are an offensive-minded sports culture, we assume offense always equals better in basketball because it's more pleasing to the eye. That’s not the case all the time.

I should have remembered that fact.

Only the Spurs and Jazz are year-in-year out good defensive teams out west. The majority of the rest of the conference is offensive-oriented. There are more guys who can score the basketball in the West. That’s all.

How else do you explain the Cavaliers taking the Celtics to seven games and coming within a couple baskets of beating the eventual champions with that roster while the best team in the alleged toughest conference lost in six and out-and-out quit (losing by 40) in game #6 in Boston?

I won’t even go into the large leads they lost to the Celtics while in LA.

Hell, even lowly Atlanta made the Celtics sweat more than the mighty Western Conference representative.

I know, I know, sometimes match-ups dictates what will happen.

I am not buying that in this case. There was no reason for the Lakers to lay such an egg in this series. This wasn't the "Bill Russell" or "Larry Bird" Celtics they were up against. This group had R. Rondo running the show. Defenders ran away from him to help elsewhere in the playoffs as though he had a contagious disease.

More on that later.

There is one other reason the Cavaliers gave the Celtics their best series.

LJ is the best player on the planet and nearly beat Boston by himself (again) in game #7 while the second best player on the planet (Kobe) had an ordinary series against the Celtics. If Paul Pierce does not have a career game in game #7 to offset James' effort, the Celtics don’t advance.

Remember, James has played Superman in the past. He does it all the time. This was the first time Pierce reached that level on such a huge stage. That's what it took for the Celtics to beat Cleveland. That and the rest of the Cavs' roster laying another egg. Other than Joe Smith, no other Cav played well in that series from beginning to end.

Also, remember that LJ is the closest thing to Michael Jordan in terms of making everyone around him better. He is not in Jordan’s league in terms of overall individual basketball talent but he is in terms of being able to get the most out of the talent around him. Those of you who understand what I have just said understand the basic DNA of sports.

Let’s try another approach – if you put James in a Lakers’ uniform, who wins that series against the Celtics? The Lakers do because James gets more out of Gasol, Odom and company by getting them consistently better/easier looks at the basket.

James also rebounds the ball better than most power forwards in the league and would have offset somewhat the Celtics decided edge over the Lakers in toughness inside.

Also, if Kobe is such a terrific defender, how did Paul Pierce win the Finals MVP Award? There were times the two guarded each other, and from my vantage point, Pierce won that battle most of the time.

Kobe is a much better shooter than James. He is the world's best one-on-one player, not the "best player on the planet" as the media would have you believe. He's at best #2 on that list.

Finally, if you don’t believe me – believe my favorite rapper – “The Diesel” and his recent lyrical observation: “Kobe can't win without me. Kobe, how does my $#@ taste. Kobe, how does my $#@ taste.”

Or something to that effect.

Bob Ryan
Here’s a simple case of a local (Boston) reporter letting his heart get into the way of reality. He recently stated this Celtic team was the second best he has ever seen. Sure, have another drink.

I have no idea how they would do against the great Celtic teams of Russell and company. I never saw them play. But this group would have NO chance against the Larry Bird teams of the 80s. That team not only had Bird – one of the game’s five best players of all-time – but two other Hall of Famers (McHale & Parrish), and Dennis Johnson, a lookdown defender, and Danny Ainge, a 6-5 versatile guard. That team played together for years and also had the highest basketball IQ of any team I have ever seen.

Ryan got carried away. Hopefully, he will come to his senses soon and apologize for that asinine comment. Next, Ryan will tell us this Celtic team could handle Magic, Kareem and that crew.

Goodbye CC
First, let's make clear I am a CC fan. Those of you who have read this blog in the past know that. If I were in charge, signing him would have been my #1 priority LAST YEAR. However, they (Indians) screwed that up, so we are where we are.

The Indians are under .500 and show no sign of coming out of it. Now it is imperative the Tribe get the “right” package for CC. They desperately need a good corner outfield or corner infield bat and power arms in the pen. It’s also crucial that bat comes with a potential high on base percentage. This team does not need a player who will hit 30 homers and fan over 100 times. They already have too many players who don’t make enough contact.

Everyone wants a Barloto Colon type package in return. That’s wishful thinking. Rarely do you hit on all three prospects in one deal. If they can get two players who can be key contributors at the major league level for the next 6-8 years, they will be doing well.

For those morons who still want them to keep CC through the season, ask them who the Indians got for “Joey” Belle, Manny Ramirez or Jim Thome and what did keeping them until they skipped town get them (Indians)?

Trade Bait
Astrubal Cabrera is playing shortstop in AAA. That should tell you something. We wanted Cabrera at SS at the beginning of 2008 and Peralta moved to second. Look for that to take place soon. The Tribe may be shopping Peralta along with the obvious others – CC, Byrd and Blake.

Here is my problem with that – it is hard to find middle infielders who hit with power – especially in a post steroids era. If they deal JP, they’d better get quality in return. As of now, they have no second baseman of the future on the roster.

Which brings us to Casey Blake - his strength is versatility. Few players can play all four corner positions adequately like he can and also hit for some measure of power. The downside is he’s at best a .270 hitter and nothing more. He’s the classis “average” major league player – which is saying something since getting to the big leagues and staying there is the most difficult thing to do in sports. He’s also a free agent after the season.

I can’t see the Indians committing a fat multi-year contract to Blake based on the numbers he puts up. But then again, his versatility is intriguing. Blake might also be on the block come July.

The Indians however need to be careful they don’t create too many holes with deals at the deadline. There is no one in the system to play third base right away. Ditto for second base. And although Cabrera can play shortstop better than Peralta from a defensive standpoint, his offensive meltdown in 2008 is worrisome. I, a Cabrera fan, certainly did not see it coming.

Too many moves once out of the playoff picture might be problematic. The key is the quality ou get back for CC. That will go a long way toward telling us what type of team will be in Cleveland the next few years.

PAC Man
I read where one of my favorites said he would “pray” for Don Imus. I didn’t know they had altars and pews in strip clubs. I love Pac Man. I wanted him playing cover corner for the Browns this fall. But come on.

Omar
A final word on my wife's favorite player of all-time - Omar V. Another of my commandments is you keep a Hall of Fame player when you have one. Until the end. Period.

We said at the time the Indians needed to keep Omar several years ago when they deemed him old and expendable. I would overpay a player who has meant that much to a franchise to make the fans happy and have him enter the HOF wearing my uniform. Yes, even if his skills have eroded somewhat. In Omar's case, that has taken place just recently.

I know it goes against my rule of "this is a business and you need to treat it as such." See my desire for the Browns getting PAC Man when he was available cheap.

But in Omar's case, I would have kept him, escpecially after two other HOFs left town - Manny and Thome. That is another reason why I wanted the Tribe to sign CC. He's the closest thing they have to a HOF talent next to the underachieving Grady Sizemore.

He's (Omar) barely hitting .180 since coming off an injury, but seeing him easily execute a perfect suicide squeeze then make a nice play in the hole in the ninth inning to get a key out at second to beat the Tribe yesterday reminded me of what has been missing in Cleveland the past few years.

That needed to be said.

Tiger
I actually watched Tiger Woods play golf recently and came away with a this question - Is it a sport if a guy can win the event playing basically on one leg?

You can't play football, basketball, baseball, tennis, soccer, etc... on one leg. You can win the World Series of Poker on one good leg though.

Look, that's not to say Woods isn't an amazing talent. My beef is with comparing him and his "sport" to the other major sports in play. To call golfers "great athletes" is what I question. I would use "great talent" instead. That's just me.

Golf is a game of great skill, but to put it in the same league with other major sports gives me room for pause. Let's just say I don't think golfers in large part are some of the world's best athletes. Again, that's not to take anything away from Woods' individual greatness. He might be the exception.

Remember - the ball ain't moving and no one is even allowed to say a word when you hit it.

And please don't go to "You don't know how hard it is to be there all by yourself, and execute a 12 foot put uphill to win a tournament with all those eyes on you."

Come on. Give me some credit.

I'm sure that's harder than trying to catch a pass over the middle with a 220 pound missile (known as a safety) about to hit you at full speed with 80,000 people screaming at the top of their lungs.

Or trying to score over a 6-5 athlete on an NBA floor who was also heavily recruited to play tight end in college.

Or maybe you'd like to try to hit a 90 mile per hour pitch that moves a ton (unlike a golf ball) thrown by a Major Leaguer.

Please. What's next, telling me it's extremely hard to walk a golf course at a tournament four times in one week. That's a lot of mileage right? I might buy that some if they at least had them carry their own bags.

Just because it's not easy to do, does not make it a sport!

There are good athletes playing golf, and yes, getting a pro golf card and making the tour is extremely difficult. I'm told it is one of the most difficult things to accomplish. But don't tell me Lee Trevino was a great athletes.

Yea, I know the sport has changed and they lift now, have personal trainers and take good care of their bodies. That's nice. I would also say it's about time.

I put golf somewhere below tennis and soccer. I would put it above distance running however. Sorry, for those of you who are skinny, like to run in circles and enjoy an occasional game of frisbee.

Soccer
I have also been watching the European Soccer Championships. I played the game as a youngster although I don't admit to it publicly very often. I, unlike, most Americans can appreciate a 1-0 match. Perhaps it's my European background - the fact that I came here from that part of the world.

Regardless, watching the tournament reminded me again what kind of damage the U.S. could do internationally in the sport if our best athletes played soccer instead of the other major sports.

We in the States have three main sports youngsters choose first and foremost - football, basketball and baseball. Soccer is at best #4 on that list. Some would place track and field #4, but I don't.

In the rest of the world, soccer is normally #1 or #2 at worst - Scandanavian countries emphasize hockey for example.

Soccer will never, I repeat never, reach the status of the "Big Three" in the U.S. There's simply too much competition. And now, with the emphasis on playing one sport year round, that fact has been solidified here in the States.

By the way, I am a big opponent of youngsters playing just one sport year round for several reasons. But that's for another day.

Besides, that's enough knowledge for you to consume in one sitting (reading).

The wait was worth it, wasn't it?

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Getting On Records, 6-3-08

Betancourt
Last week, Eric Wedge started to show signs the losing was getting to him. He called out Rafael Betancourt for not pitching inside enough after another poor outing by the Tribe’s set-up man.

Last year, Betancourt combined with Rafael Perez to form the best set-up tandem in baseball. In 2008, both have had their struggles. Such is the life of a reliever in MLB. No one in their right mind expected the duo to post ’07 numbers in ’08. The memo obviously did not reach Wedge. Very few relievers are outstanding every year. The few that are that good that often usually pitch in the ninth inning.

What surprised this observer is Wedge naming a player who has struggled and critiquing him publicly. That’s a first for Wedge.

And why choose Betancourt?

Wedge has plenty of higher-priced regulars to criticize who have underachieved this season. Start at the top of the batting order and work your way to the ninth hitter and stop at a place of your choosing.

Secondly, Wedge’s critique is misguided in this case.

We all know you have to pitch inside to win – especially if you are a starter and have to face the same hitters two or three times a game. Betancourt is a reliever who pitches two innings max. It helps if he pitches inside, but he proved in ’07, he could dominate by painting the outside corner all season long. I have never seen a pitcher paint the black away like he did for six months in ’07. That's a hard habit to break if you have had success like he did.

To expect him to change his approach to pitching after just two months of struggling in ’08 is somewhat unrealistic – especially after no one got on him about pitching inside last year when he didn’t and was arguably the best set-up man in the AL.

Yes, he probably should pitch inside more. No one would argue that. But what has he done to draw Wedge’s ire in public? Hey Eric - it doesn’t take guts to call out a set-up guy.

Look for Mark Shapiro to have a heart to heart with Eric about his public critique of Betancourt. First, that’s not his style, and secondly, if you do it, you don’t choose a set-up guy. That doesn't go over well in the lockerroom.

Now to answer why he chose Betancourt – my guess is he (Wedge) was disappointed RB failed in the short time he was placed in the closer’s role when Joe Bo was out, and that frustration eventually came out in a post-game interview days later.

Remember, many have been pushing for Betancourt to close more even dating back to ’07when Borowski was doing his nightly ninth inning tight-rope act. Now, that future option does not seem as appealing.

Celtics – Lakers
We had the Celtics in the Finals before the season started but missed on the Lakers. Thanks to Memphis handing LA a polished post player (P. Gasol) for practically nothing in mid-season, the Lakers are representing the West.

Based on what we have seen in the post-season so far, we give a slight edge to LA over the Celtics. How’s 4-2 LA sound?

Both teams have three all-star caliber players. The difference is LA has the single best player on the floor – Kobe, excellent length and athleticism in Gasol and Odom inside, and the better bench. Advantage Lakers.

And no, I won’t be watching any of the upcoming Kobe kiss-ass features and comments the national media will be shoving down the throats of NBA fans. I’m not that stupid. He’s a great player but still currently the single most selfish player in team sports in this observer’s eye.

By the way, I will be rooting for Kevin Garnett to win a title.

Since wearing Celtic green, I don’t like him making those silly facial expressions every time he takes a breath on the floor, but otherwise, he represents what’s right about competition and being a professional.

Garnett is the anti-Kobe.

He toiled in Minnesota, never had enough talent around him, never got out of the first round, took the blame for it and didn’t complain, and never demanded (at least in public) to be traded. That’s the definition of a class act.

Flip Saunders & The Pistons
He takes them to the conference finals three straight years and is fired. It’s a rough business. Joe Dumars, who runs the show in Detroit, has basically said if you don’t get to the Finals coaching this group of Pistons, you have failed. That’s a high bar – especially now since this group is starting to get old and Detroit has one of the most inconsistent and volatile big men in the league in Rasheed Wallace.

Is it Saunders’ fault “Sheed” didn’t play well in the Celtic series?

Good luck to the next guy in line to try to get the Pistons over the hump before their window of opportunity closes.

My guess is the next Pistons coach will be a former player who recently retired. Dumars has not gone that route yet. He’s due to go there.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Getting On Record (Quick Hits)

Joe Bo
Joe Borowski may be the first pitcher to go on a rehab assignment and come back with less velocity then when he left...he's pitched twice since coming back and his fastball is now in the 84-85 mph range...there is a no way a right hander can consistently get big league hitters out with that kind of velocity - especially in the late innings...the only guy who came close was Doug Jones - who was the Tribe's closer some 20 years ago and had the nastiest change-up I have ever seen...even Jones topped off around 87-88 MHP from time to time...the Tribe now officially needs to add closer to their list of needs along with a couple bats if they are serious about contending in '08.

Murderer's Row
The Tribe's middle of the line-up the past week has included the likes of Ben Francisco, Dave Delluci and Michael Aubrey...ouch...you can at least say this for Francisco, he has a quick bat inside...as for Aubrey, I don't see what scouts saw in him to make him such a high draft pick...he's not built like your prototypical first baseman...Aubrey is on the small side and doesn't look like he would ever put up the power numbers you ideally need from that position...I hope I am mistaken and he proves me wrong.

NFL
The NFL is going to a 17 game schedule if the owners can get the players to go along...I don't see why they don't make it an even 18 and have just two pre-season games...with all the "voluntary" and mantatory off-season mini-camps, the players stay sharp year round anyway...the pre-season games are all about avoiding injuries anyway.

Kobe
I was mistaken - Kobe's team lasted in the post-season longer than LeBron's...nonetheless, it still makes me sick to listened to observers of the game fawn over this guy...he's the same guy who threw his owner, GM and teammates under the bus the last two seasons...don't get me wrong, he's an amazing talent - the most difficult individual player to guard in the NBA since Michael Jordan, but he's still selfish as hell as far as I am concerned...it's still bugging me - I know.

LeBron
It will be interesting to see if LeBron takes a page from Kobe's book and publicly demands an upgrade in talent level around him or else...that has not been his style, but he has to be getting frustrated with the lack of consistency (aka: good players) around him...I am not pushing for a public display of dissatisfaction, but look for 23 to make it clear privately to Ferry and ownership he has to have major help real soon....A. Jamison and K. Henrich would help...

Z
Z told the media before packing his bags for the summer that the Cavaliers have enough talent on hand to win a title...right...Z is a nice guy, who went through a lot with his foot injuries...the local media has given him a pass because he's likeable and a good teammate...however, he has not earned his salary since signing his last major deal with the club, and I have yet to find one local reporter go on record with the obvious....Z, stop telling us you are good enough and start delivering more in the playoffs.

Pronk
Speaking of calling players out, it's time we finally unload on Pronk...I have waited long enough...no, he's not the only Indian struggling at the plate...but that should not be used as cover...unless he turns it around quickly, he will go down as the biggest singing mistake in franchise history - surpassing Wayne Garland's 10 year/$2 million deal in the mid 70s...and in Garland's case, they had an excuse - he got hurt...last time I checked, if you are a DH and don't hit a ton, you are useless to your club...the media keeps talking about how he's great in the clubhouse..nice...they aren't paying him $14 million a year to babysit...again, this is a case of a nice guy getting a free ride in town because the media that covers the club is tame and does not want to rock the boat...I'm sorry - this is a business, and if you are the highest paid player in franchise history and are not hitting your weight, you aren't just underachieving, you are crippling the club in two ways - yourt productivity has a trickle down effect on the line-up and your salary makes it difficult for the club to maneuver financially....Pronk is lucky he's not putting up these numbers in NY or Phily.

Wedge
I have never seen Eric Wedge call for a squeeze play in all the years watching him manage the team....mind you, I realize he does not have a roster full of players who can handle the bat and play "small ball" as some call it...I call it simply - fundamental baseball...but yesterday, in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth with a runner on third and one out, it SCREAMED for a squeeze...Astrubal Cabrera and his robust .183 BA was at the plate...last time I checked, he was a middle infielder who can handle the bat...and did I mention he was hiting .183 at the time?...yes I did...but it bears repeating... why not ask a guy who can bunt and is hitting .183 to squeeze?...he got the count to 2-0...I would have given him that one strike to drive the runner home on his own...however, once when it got to 2-1, it was time to lay it down...a suicide was in order in my book...go for broke...it's a 50-50 proposition with a guy who can handle the bat like Cabrera...instead, he got the green light and fouled off a pitch that almost hit him...he eventually struck out swinging...the point is Eric Wedge is waiting and waiting for players to snap out of it on their own...my point is there are times when you can take control as the manager and insert yourself into the mix - even with a club full of players who are one-dimensional.

Gamnmons
While I am taking shots, I'd like to add another to the list...this time it's Peter Gammons of ESPN..Gammons is known as one of the most foremost media authority on baseball...he's revered by many...whatever...last week, he was asked about the offensive numbers being down again this year and he beat around the bush talking about "the influx of terrific young pitchers" and some other nonsense...he should know better than that...that sells with 95% of those listening but no those few who "get it"...the numbers have dipped the past few years for one reason and one reason alone - NO MORE ROIDS....facts don't lie and neither do my eyes...guys that had huge necks and arms 6-7 years ago and looked like Hercules now look like mere mortals again...and I'm not just talking about corner outfielders, corner infielders and DH types...it includes just about everyone...Gammons should have spoken the truth - they (the league with a huge push from Congress) are cracking down, and the players have seen what's happened to those that have been outted...and thus have been scared straight...that's the truth, not some bull about good young arms or any other jive.

Mid-Range Jumper
I like watching the Pistons play for two reasons - they (mainly GM Joe Dumars) identified they had a good core, kept them together and built around the edges...they keep it simple and are patient...secondly, I enjoy watching Rip Hamilton come off screens and take 10-12 footers - the mid-range jumper...few NBA players have that in their repertoire anymore...it's usually either the long jumper or the drive to the basket...taking mid-range jumper means pulling up in traffic - something today's players like to avoid.

NBA Or MSL
Is it me or is the NBA becoming like soccer? I'm seeing way to many players flop after contact - especially on the way to the hoop...even 23 did it a few times this post-season...come on guys, get up and get back on defense and stop looking to get a call from the refs...this isn't soccer - at least not yet.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Cavaliers Fall In Game #7 To Celtics

Okay, before the season started we predicted the Cavaliers would be a second round out in this year’s playoffs, only to change that pick and take Washington over Cleveland in round #1 of the 2008 playoffs based on Arenas’ return and how the Cavaliers were playing at the time – uninspired basketball as the regular season ended. Thankfully, our March instincts were off. You should always go with your first instincts.

We unfortunately go this series right, as Boston used home court advantage to win in seven – despite the excellent play of James in the season finale. His inspired play kept them within range and gave Cavs fans some faint hope.

We could give you a dozen reasons why the Celtics won, but that’s not necessary now is it? Remember - the Cavliers never led.

The main reason they lost is simple - 23 didn’t get enough help while Garnett’s running-mate – Paul Pierce - showed up huge with a 40+ night in the series finale.

There simply isn’t much else to say in terms of the Cavaliers. It's Groundhog Day every night with them. They are the only NBA team without at least two legitimate scorers, and until management gets 23 a legitimate running-mate, it will be more of the same – LJ trying to carry 11 other guys over the finish line while hoping a couple of his friends help with the final kick.

Gibson was their most consistent role player in the post-season in 2007, but unfortunately, he was slowed by injuries this season, and unavailable in game #7. Had he been present, it might have made a difference, but then again, if Norwood doesn’t go wide right against the Giants in the Super Bowl, Bill Belichick (the cheater) might not be heading to Canton someday to be indicted in the Pro Football HOF. We’ll make sure to be out of town for that induction ceremony.

As for the game, I though Mike Brown did a solid job coaching with one noticeable exception – James should NEVER have come out of the game in the second quarter. When he did, we cringed, and acted like a fan yelling at the tv set hoping Brown coud hear my objection. He didn't. More importantly, what followed was his team being outscored 5-0 during that ugly stretch – and that was basically the difference in the contest.

They (Cavaliers) went from down six to down 11 quickly during that brief 1+ minute stretch 23 sat. To his credit, Brown did get him back in quickly, realizing he needed LJ on the floor to stop the bleeping.

If LJ asked to come out, we take back our criticism of Brown, but if it was a coach’s decision – it was a bad one. We noted in our last entry prior to tip-off, James needed to be on the floor for the full 48 today. Now, unfortunately, he has all summer to rest.

Look, they (Cavs) didn’t win as many games as last year and certainly were not as consistent at either end of the floor. Management tried a remedy – making a huge trade to change the make-up of the team – including bringing in three new starters. But in the end, all that did was shuffle the deck. We liked the deal, but re-iterated that no impact players were added with the move, and subsequently, they lost to a better team in Boston in the playoffs.

Now it’s up to Danny Ferry to go back to work and add the following before the 2008-09 season begins - acquire a legitimate scorer that you can count on for 18-20 points a night (Antwan Jamison sounds about right) and add more overall athleticism to the roster.

Otherwise, it will be more of the same for James and company next year, no matter how they dress it up.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Game #7 Prelude

Game #7 Prelude
Based on history and current circumstances, Cavalier fans should not be expecting James & company to be playing next week. The odds of winning a game #7 in Boston are slim at best – even with arguably the planet’s best player wearing a wine and gold uniform.

Why you ask?

There is a reason teams fight so hard in the regular season for home court advantage. Playing a game #7 in your building gives you a decisive edge.

First, players, has we have stated over and over again, are more comfortable and generally play better in familiar surroundings (see Celtics’ point-guard Rondo’s numbers in the series).

Secondly, the officials let you get away with more holding, shoving and generally, more physical play in your building. That blocking call against you on the road turns into a charge in your favor more often than not at home, etc… etc…

The opposition’s role players tend to be out to lunch on the road. The crowd, the intensity the defenders display and the magnitude of the game often overwhelms average players in huge game as this one upcoming.

The home team also gets a great lift from the home fans, which are right on top of the action in a basketball arena. Coaches don’t have to worry about players not being ready to give 110% because the fans make sure everyone wearing the home whites will be charged up to perform.

Of all the major team sports, playing in your building in basketball gives the home team the largest advantage going in and the greatest margin for error for those reasons above and more.

Does this mean the Cavaliers have no chance to advance? Of course not. But here is a sober assessment of what must happen for the Cavaliers and Pistons to meet in the conference semi-finals next week.

Obviously, LJ must have a monster game. My 10-year daughter even knows that.

He was on pace for such a contest in game #5 with his team up three at intermission and James sitting on 23 points at the break. Unfortunately, the Celtics adjusted at halftime and James became passive in the third quarter, leading to an eventual Celtic victory. That can’t happen on Sunday.

James must have a huge all-around game from beginning to end. He must score early and often (40+ sounds about right), distribute effectively, control tempo, rebound the basketball, defend and make big plays and the right decisions with the ball down the stretch in order for the Cavaliers to win.

That’s asking a lot, but the Cavs' roster dictates he plays huge tomorrow if the Cavaliers have any hope of advancing.

His teammates will of course need to give him some help. The loss of Gibson hurts. Last year, Gibson delivered from time to time on the road in the playoffs. He won’t be in uniform tomorrow due to injury. That means Wally, Z and Joe Smith must all get in double figures – with one of the three having a big offensive game, perhaps 20or more, to get them over the top.

The Celtics will simply not allow James alone to beat them.

If you watch the first half replay of game #5, Boston did not tilt its defense in James’ direction as much in the first half of that contest as it did in the previous four games. As a result, James had 23 at the break and the Cavaliers led. That changed in the second half. The Celtics will make someone else besides James beat them tomorrow, so the role players – all 11 of them – must be ready to contribute.

The Cavaliers as a team must be strong with the basketball in game #7.

Too many times in this series in Boston, Cleveland players has had the ball knocked loose or players have stumbled while trying to make plays, which led to turnovers and buckets at the other end. James, West and Wally especially must take better care of the ball. All three have had their moments turnover-wise. James has made bad decisions with the basketball while Wally and West have not been strong with the ball on the road.

Remember, the officials will allow the Celtics to grab, hold and shove at home. That’s just life in the NBA, on the road, against a good defensive team that accumulated 66 wins in the regular season. No use complaining about it – just play through it.

Coach Mike Brown must also push all the right buttons.

If it means playing James 48 minutes if the game dictates that - so be it. If it means giving the Celtics a new look - go for it. If it means going very small and making sure all five players on the floor can score the basketball - do it. That would mean Wallace and Andy both on the bench at the same time for stretches.

The Cavalier coaching staff must also use timeouts wisely and not allow the Celtics to have 10-0 or 12-2 runs. One of those runs could spell the end of the Cavalier season.

Furthermore, Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league at coming up with positive offensive possessions off time-outs – that’s coaching. Brown and friends must improve in that area immediately.

Good free throw shooting is especially imperative on the road. The Cavaliers, and James especially who should spend a lot of time at the stripe, need to be at 80% or better.

Finally, the Cavaliers must close out quarters much better in Boston. The Cavaliers need to be mindful of that – especially on the road in a game #7.

They (Cavaliers) will also need some help.

Two of Boston’s best three players – Garnett, Pierce and Allen – must be controlled in order for the Cavs to expect to advance. Defensively, that’s a difficult task, but so far in the series, that has happened more often than not – especially with Allen, who seems frustrated and confused at times.

In order to slow down their top offensive weapons, the Cavaliers must continue to give the Celtic role players open looks. That allowed Rondo to have a huge game #5 at home, but he turned in a poor performance in game #6 in Cleveland against the same defensive philosophy. The Cavaliers have no choice. They must hope Rondo and company don’t play well tomorrow. If they do, you tip your hat and go on vacation for the summer.

The rebounding will also be key tomorrow. If the Cavaliers can rebound misses effectively and get out and run, the defense will not have time to set up and take James' penetration away. The Cavs need to force the action in the open court and you can't do that without forcing misses and getting the board.

And finally, bench play will be huge in game #7.

Prior to Gibson going down, one could make the argument the Cavalier bench, at six through eighth, was one of the best in the league with Gibson, Andy and Joe Smith as the first three to see action. With Gibson out, that changes the equation. Regardless, Andy, Smith and company will need to give the Cavaliers quality minutes tomorrow.

After all this, the bottom line remains the same however – none of this matters unless 23 dominates. He’ll be the best talent on the floor – so they have a chance.

This is a perfect stage for James to build on the legacy he started last year in game #5 versus the Pistons – where he single-handedly carried the Cavaliers to victory in a hostile environment. That one game did more for his reputation than any single game he’s played to date.

It’s time for a sequel.

If LJ goes off tomorrow and the Cavaliers advance winning a game #7 in Boston against a team that has not lost at home in the playoffs and accumulated a league-best 66 regular season wins, then he truly has taken the next step toward greatness.

Unfortunately, like we said when this series started - we liked Boston in seven and still do. Our heart says James and company can do it, but our basketball IQ tells us otherwise.

Indians
At the quarter mark, it is time for a quick Cleveland Indian evaluation.

The starting pitching, with the noticeable exception of CC’s April meltdown, has been very good. The starters have more than kept the Tribe in games to date.

The bullpen has been mediocre at best. That’s the one major difference between the Indians of 2007, when they had the best pen in the game, and 2008.

The defense has been average.

This team simply does not have many outstanding individual defensive players – but they are getting better. Sizemore is excellent in center (a Gold Glove winner), Gut is very good in right and Cabrera is very good in the middle infield. At the beginning of 2007, out of the three mentioned, only Sizemore was on the roster.

The offense has been dreadful.

Last year, several players had solid seasons. So far in 2008, the Indians do not have one player that is overachieving or having what can be considered a good season at the plate. Hafner’s continued struggles have had a ripple effect throughout the line-up. Victor is not getting many pitches to drive – even though his average is above .300, the Indians have used a number of different line-ups, and they continue to strike out too much as a team.

What is most frustrating for those that understand the art of hitting is the fact that they are giving up at bats, not working the count nor making adjustments in-game. This means either they are lacking in concentration or not listening to Eric Wedge and company. Either way, that is not a good sign.

What have they as an organization to adjust to their offensive woes – bring up Ben Francisco. Many felt he should have been on the roster from day one. That’s a start, but certainly not enough.

The good news is they are playing in what looks like a relatively weak division in 2008. How else do you explain everyone around .500 or under? With all their offensive woes and shaky bullpen,, the Indians are in first place in mid-May.

If the bullpen can get straightened out and half the line-up reaches its past productionn levels, they (Indians) should be in fairly good shape in that division.

We still believe a big bat is needed in the middle of that order, as we stated back in March. Cleveland will likely try to fill that need before the end of July trading deadline. Remember, it's usually easier to deal for a bat than an arm.

If you folks still don't like my pre-season Bary Bonds suggestion, how does Ken Griffey sound?

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Cavs Hold Serve & More

Cavs Hold Serve
We criticized LJ for his poor performances in Boston but noted the series was far from over with the Cavaliers returning home for a pair. Well, they held serve in their own building – as they should – and tied the series at two apiece. Congratulations.

Why did this happen? Simple. They (Cleveland) played better at both ends of the floor – like most teams do in their building. Secondly, James was much more comfortable on the floor in games 3 & 4 even though his shooting touch remains poor.

Even though 23 his still having trouble making jumpers, he re-established himself as the best player on the floor in this series – especially in last night’s game #4 win. Doug Collins, the TNT analyst, noted wisely as such. That’s crucial to the Cavaliers, who need James active defensively, setting tempo offensively and getting teammates open looks, even when his shot isn’t falling.

You saw what usually happens with James out of the game last night when he picked up his third foul with nearly four minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Cavaliers struggled offensively without James on the floor. Remember – they have no one else that can create, so when James sits, the offense gets real ugly real quick. That's the residue effect of having 11 role players and one mega-star.

A key to game #4’s win involved James not picking up a quick fourth foul in the third quarter. He played smart basketball in that quarter – not forcing too much offensively, and not reaching defensively, thus avoiding a potential critical fourth foul and having to sit a spell.

The game itself was arguably the best contest I have seen this season in terms of pure basketball. Both teams executed their defensive strategies effectively and competed hard at both ends for the full 48 minutes. The officials also let them play, with the exception of a touch foul called on James on a blow by move. The refs allowed the game to be decided on the floor, not at the line.

In the end, Wally Z and B. Gibson punished the Celtics just enough for their constant titling of the defense toward 23, Andy V played outstanding defense on Kevin Garnett late and James was enough of a force to get it done and win a crucial game #4.

Other observations from phase II (Cavs at home in games #3 & #4)

Shoot Rondo Shoot
We like how Mike Brown has decided to roam from R. Rondo and make the young point guard shoot perimeter jumpers…this corner is a big proponent of identifying the opponent’s weakest scorers, doubling off those individuals and making them make decisions with the basketball…if Rondo and Kendrick Perkins make buckets, so be it…for the Cavs however, it’s extremely wise for them to attempt to minimize the shots Garnett, Allen and Pierce take.

Activity On The Offensive Glass
One disappointing note still remains in terms of a lack of offensive rebounding from Big Ben and Andy…they just don’t seem as active as they should be on the offensive glass keeping possessions alive…obviously some credit must go to the Celtic defenders for keeping them off the glass...nevertheless, with as much attention as James is getting, there are avenues for them to make their presence felt off missed shots.

TNT Observations
The best analyst observation from the two games in Cleveland came once again from Charles Barkley, who noted last night the Celtics do not have many outstanding individual defenders on their team even though they are considered by most experts as the league’s best defensive unit…yes, Kevin Garnett was the Defensive Player of the Year, but no one else on that roster is a lock down defender…secondly, Barkley noted the Celtics do not get many easy looks at the hoop…basically, they are a team that walks it up the floor and must make jump shots to win…obviously, that formula has worked this season with a league-best 66 wins…however, when a team defends them well, as the Cavaliers did in their building, the Celtics are vulnerable.

Reminder
For those so-called ‘experts” who are now jumping off the Celtic bandwagon, we remind you that Boston is the only team in the playoffs that does not have to win on the road to win a title…is that likely to happen?... of course not…however, until someone steals one in Boston, they (Celtics) are still in the driver’s seat.

Gambler’s Delight
I assume smart gamblers made a lot of money this past week with teams like San Antonio, Cleveland, and Utah all going home and taking a pair after being down 2-0…all three of these teams have two things in common…first, they are veteran clubs that are difficult to beat at home, and secondly, and more important, they defend…we had an inkling all three of these teams would even up their individual series…of course, we don't advise gambling, unless you happen to reside in Vegas, but common sense won out this past week in the NBA playoff...as we have said over and over again, good defensive teams give themselves a chance…combine that with playing in familiar surroundings, and you have a formula for success…now, taking it on the road is another matter…it’s our guess, San Antonio is the most likely of the three candidates to come back from 0-2 to win their series…besides, we picked the Spurs prior to the season starting to win the title both in ’07 and again in ’08…so we’ll continue to ride that horse…I would not mind seeing the Spurs lose however…that would make it very interesting and would guarantee a “new sheriff in town.”

Bottle It
If the Cavaliers could bottle their defensive effort from last night (game #4) and take it with them on the road, they would have a legitimate chance to win the 2007-08NBA Championship…overall, the stats indicate they have played much better defense in the 10 playoff games than in the regular season, when they were still searching for an identity following the trade…they have allowed more than 90 points in only two of the 10 playoff games played so far…that’s good, but expected to a degree, because the games slow down in post-season due to familiarity between teams playing each other so much.…however, last night’s effort was especially outstanding…they kept guard penetration to a minimum, played excellent team defense in terms of rotating and closing out on shooters and they had very few communication breakdowns that led to easy baskets.

The Bad News
A warning…I find it very difficult to believe Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will continue to struggle offensively for the rest of the series…one or both should be expected to go off in game #5 in Boston…they are at home, their team needs them badly, they should be personally embarrassed with their play and they are way overdue to play well.

The Good News
The series has reaches its final phase/stage, pick your term…now it’s a short three-game series…the Cavaliers have only one advantage – they have the best player and he is capable of putting his team on his back and carrying them to victory (see Cavs-Pistons, game #5, ’07 playoffs)…it will take a huge effort from James on the road for the Cavaliers to advance…though he will likely have two shots at it…unfortunately, we still like the Celtics in seven.

Tony Romo
This guy would make me nervous if he were my teammate… he takes a mini vacation with his woman during the playoffs last winter…he then tries to qualify for a golf tournament, and when he failed to make the cut, blames the fact that he couldn’t get enough practice rounds in because football was taking up much of his time...then he shows up at Wrigley and makes his singing debut during the seventh inning stretch…mind you, all this is harmless fun and Romo-backers will say he’s just living his life...I get it…but still, he would be well-advised to attract less attention to himself…otherwise, if/when he fails on the field, critics will go to his off the field exploits as an easy out to criticize...by the way, he’s not that good…he is one of the better second tier quarterbacks in a league of very mediocre signal-callers…the first tier has the HOF’s of course – Manning, Brady and Favre…the second tier includes Romo and whoever you want to plug in this week (i.e. Palmer, Hasselbeck, etc…)

OJ Mayo
Let me get this right…OJ Mayo sends USC a fax TELLING them he is going to play collegiate basketball for Southern CAL for just one year even though they did NOT recruit him…he does this because his wants to maximize his exposure - or so we are told to believe...Tim Floyd, the head coach, doesn’t see anything wrong with this picture and accepts Mayo’s kind gesture…the season come and goes, Mayo jumps ship like he said he would and now we hear he allegedly took money – breaking NCAA rules…WHAT A SHOCKER…of course, Floyd and company will say all the right things, like the kid was a good student, fine teammate, etc…and that the coaching staff was unaware of any wrongdoing...besides, you can’t be expected to watch these kids 24-7, etc…etc…BULL…Mayo got what he wanted, which was exposure for himself in the nation’s second biggest media market (LA) before turning pro and Floyd and SC got what they wanted – a talented player to help them compete for attention with UCLA in their backyard, if only for one year…if serious violations did occur, I hope the NCAA throws the book at Floyd and SC…a blind man could have seen this one coming.

Tribe Shortstops
Astrubal Cabrera has been playing more SS lately for the Indians and playing it well. we mentioned late last summer that Cabrera should be the team’s SS and Peralta’s mediocre glove but solid bat (20 HR/75+ RBI seasons) would be better off at 2B…they did not take our advice – yet…but again, we re-iterate the obvious to anyone who has ever played in the middle of the diamond – you want you best defensive middle infielder at SS if possible…with the Indians, it’s possible…Cabrera would upgrade the SS position and the team would be better off for it…better yet, ask the Indian pitchers in private who they would rather have playing SS...this is not a knock at Peralta, it just makes sense.

Mike Diantonio
All the media pundits are saying former Suns’ Head Coach Mike Diantonio going to New York to coach the Knicks is a "bad fit" because that franchise does not have similar personnel the Suns have to run his up tempo style offense…question – What team with a coaching vacancy has Steve Nash and company on their roster? Answer – NONE…yes, Chicago would have made more sense for him – they have much younger and better overall athletic talent than the Knicks – but who doesn’t?…but that gig didn’t happen for reasons unknown and Diantonio is headed to NY…Donnie Walsh got himself a good NBA coach…Diantonio’s system in terms of winning games works (note I did not say winning championships) …the problem is not with the new coach, it’s with the players in NY and will remain so no matter who takes that head coaching position…of course he’s (Diantonio) likely to be a better fit than say, Mark Jackson, a current analyst, who the pundits were pushing...Jackson, a solid former NBA point guard, has as much NBA coaching experience as you or I do…the talking heads don’t see it that way…Jackson played in New York, he played for Walsh in Indiana and he can “relate” to the players because he was recently one of them…yea, right, S. Marbury, a noted “coach killer” would listen to Jackson but not Diantonio...look, we have nothing against Jackson, but if we were in Walsh’s shoes, we would have likely done the same thing – hire a coach who has had a great deal of success in this league and follow up that hire by blowing up the roster and get the new coach his type of players.

Robbie Gould
Relax Bear fans, all is well in George Halas land…the Chicago Bears have signed their place-kicker Robbie Gould through the 2013 season…he’s the most accurate kicker in team history (84.8%) according to the team’s press release…too bad they can’t say the same thing about their quarterback (Rex Grossman) – who the team has resigned in a clear attempt at water-boarding Bear fans for yet another season…the signing of RG does make sense…the Bears’ offensive mission statement reads as follows – “Don’t turn it over, punt well if we must, and if we are somehow fortunate enough to get in field goal range, make sure Robbie gets us 3"...no mention of scoring touchdowns anywhere.

Friday, May 9, 2008

LJ A No-Show In Phase I

It’s not the 8-for-42 shooting that has me dumbfounded – those things happen. It is the bad decisions with the basketball – including 17 turnovers in two games, and the general tentativeness with which he is playing that has me wondering why 23 looks lost in the second round of the playoffs (down 2-0) versus the Celtics.

Granted, this is the first time I have seen LJ have back-to-back poor performances in big games. He usually bounces back quickly. The likelihood is the comforts of playing at home in games #3 & #4 should propel James & company to playing much better and prolonging this series.

However, the truth is this – James needs to play extremely well ON THE ROAD if the Cavaliers have any chance of advancing beyond round #2. We can excuse one bad effort from "The King", but not two.

He needs to step up and lead his team to a pair of wins at home, thus evening the series. But he also needs to dominate in Boston and give his team a chance at a series win. So far he's been MIA in Boston.

A decent performance from James in game #1 and the Cavaliers would be in the driver’s seat at 1-1 heading back home just needing to hold serve in order to win the series. Call it a missed opportunity.

Instead, what we have is a tentative LJ, settling for jumpers instead of taking it strong to the basket or backing defenders down, all the while turning it over at an alarming rate. And we have rarely heard his number called on the defensive end either.

Chris Paul is dominating his series after three games played and Kobe is playing well up 2-0 in his series while collecting the 2007-08 MVP trophy.

Meanwhile, James is 8-for-42 from the field with 17 turnovers while looking lost in Boston.

Like we said, one bad game can happen, but back-to-back horrid performances – which include terrible cross court passes that are stolen, missed layups, and one paint-stripping long jumper after another from long range cannot be excused – not by “The Chosen One.”

Perhaps we were wrong when we claimed James was the league’s MVP and not Kobe or Paul. So far in this round of the playoffs, James is making the voters look smart.

In fact, after two games versus the Celtics, James is not even the best player on his own team. His long-time teammate and the league’s lone 7-3 jump shooting center (Z) has outplayed James by far. That is not what the Cavalier coaches, management and fans expected.

I know he can dunk like no other, I realize he’s a freak of nature and I understand the special basketball gifts he possesses, but I never thought I would have to question James’ basketball IQ or as the commercial said – “his court vision.”

Want an example. Okay. James is in a mismatch with a much smaller Sam Cassell in the third quarter of game #2, and instead of backing him down and taking him to the hole, he settles for a quick baseline fade away that clanks off the rim – giving up his size advantage and giving up the basketball once again with the miss.

One can expect that kind of decision-making from the likes of Sasha Pavlovic, but not from 23.

What has made James so special so early in his career is his ability to “understand the game.” For whatever reason - that judgment is lacking right now.

Yes, some credit should go to the Celtics. But this is the same Celtic team James torched in three games during the regular season. Yes, the Celtics are very good, but they are also the same Celtic team that needed seven games to knock off the sub-500 Atlanta Hawks.

As you know, we do not throw the word “great” around often. However, this is an appropriate time for its usage.

“Great” players MUST play well on the road and he (LJ) hasn’t come close to playing “well” – let alone dominating. And unless he gets it back quickly, the Cavaliers will suffer a playoff embarrassment reminiscent of last year’s Finals.

The good news is James still has time.

This series has now entered phase II – the Cavaliers are at home. James needs to "will his team" to a pair of wins and even this mess at 2-2. If he does, the series will enter the final phase (Phase III) – where “great” players earn their stripes and missed opportunities like game 1 are forgotten.

Other Notes - The Cavaliers will need to improve their talent level in terms of athletiscm in the off-season...even though we complained for over two years for Cavs management to add another all-star to help James, we did give our blessing to the mid-season 11-player mega trade...however, we also noted at the time, the Cavaliers were losing some athleticism in the deal and that would need to be addressed in the off-season...that has been evident in both playoff series so far...this leads us to our second point, even with the loss of Hughes and Gooden, this team is much better offensively when it runs - not allowing teams to double and triple James in the halfcourt, thus making other players on the roster who can't create their own shots score...however, when you decide to play up tempo, you usually lose "your edge" defensively (Suns, Mavs, Kings, etc...)...Mike Brown and company must find that compromise that allows for an identity at the offensive end without it hurting the team defense...that won't be easy...Chris Paul is fun to watch...we didn't think he would be "special" coming out of college...boy, were we wrong...he looks like the next Steve Nash...the difference - Nash has more range on his jumper, but Paul is stronger and a better defender.