Sunday, August 26, 2007

Quality ABs Aug25'07

One pitch in one at bat can make a world of difference.

That was the case Sunday afternoon in Kansas City when the Tribe’s Grady Sizemore doubled to centerfield with the Indians one pitch away from losing yet another series.

Sizemore, who has been among the league-leaders in strikeouts all season long, was behind in the count to Royals’ closer Joakim Soria with no one on and two outs with the Tribe down a run in the ninth.

Instead of trying to do too much, Sizemore did something we have rarely seen from him all season long. He shortened up and took a Soria fastball on the outside edge to center field.

Soria made his pitch, but Sizemore made the adjustment and put the ball in play giving himself and his team a chance, instead of pulling off the ball and perhaps fanning for an embarrassing 131st time this season.

With the outfield playing deep to take away the extra base hit, Royals’ centerfield David DeJesus was unable to make the catch, and made matters worse for the home team by leaving his feet in his attempt to end the contest, thus allowing Sizemore to take second getting himself in scoring position.

What followed was an RBI single by a guy making the league minimum - rookie middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera - who since being called up from AAA has quickly established himself as one of the most important acquisitions any team has made for the stretch run since the trading deadline.

Cabrera, knowing that Soria wanted to quickly get ahead, was ready early in the count and took a fastball down the middle right back up the middle for an RBI single.

The Indians when on to win the game, 5-3, in 11 innings, but it was Sizemore’s two-strike approach that made the series’ win possible.

He won the at bats because he gave in – making himself a tough out. It wasn’t his team-leading 23rd home run some fans were hoping for. It was much more than that. It was a better approach at the plate - the type of approach managers love, teammates respect and helps you win games that get you to October.

It was the right baseball play – something we haven’t seen much from this line-up the past two months.

For the Indians to win the Central Division in 2007, they will need more at bats like Sizemore’s down the stretch. They must stop giving away at bats, must go the other way when the situation presents itself and continue to battle when down in the count.

Baseball is a game of adjustments and it is clear the pitchers in the American League have made the necessary adjustments to the Tribe’s line-up the second and third time through. The early season offensive success, which had the Tribe sticks among the league-leaders in home runs, runs scored and pitches seen, has been replaced by offensive struggles of gigantic proportions.

Closed door meetings, extra BP and tinkering with the line-up can’t hurt. But in the end, it’s up to the Indians to have more quality at bats.

It will rest on players like Travis Hafner to stop pulling off the ball, up to Jhonny Peralta to stop chasing sliders down and away and important for Grady Sizemore to finally figure out he’s more valuable to the Indians as a .300 hitter with a .400+ on base percentage than a 30 home run guy who hits .275 and leads the league in striking out.

As for today, it was one of 335 pitches in game #129 of the season that made all the difference in the world.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Randon Thoughts Aug23'07

Dolan Concerns
The Dolan family has to be nervous right about now.

Their baseball team (Cleveland Indians) is in the middle of a division race for the third time in the last four years and it looks like, at the moment, the direction they are headed seems all too familiar.

The team contended in 2004 and faded late.

Fans were told by management the 2004 squad was ahead of schedule and too young to be expected to win the Central Division.

At least that’s the excuse used in early August by Mark Shapiro when questioned about not adding any help for the stretch run at the trading deadline. That and “everyone wanted our top prospects (i.e. Grady Sizemore) when we talked.”

Most fans gave the Tribe a pass that season because there was light at the end of the tunnel after several seasons of rebuilding. In other words, they bought the company line.

The team contended in 2005 and again management did nothing of consequence at the trading deadline. Indian fans are all too familiar with what happened in the final two weeks of the season – the team turned the same direction as the autumn weather – cold.

Most of Mark Shapiro’s off-season moves prior to the 2006 season didn’t pan out and the Tribe struggled all season all. In a mid-size market like Cleveland, the general manager has a much smaller margin for error than the GM in Chicago, Boston, LA or New York.

If the GM doesn’t hit for a high batting average in the off-season, there aren’t enough resources (aka: money) to make amends during the season and correct most team flaws. Such was the case in 2006.

To date, this season has looked a lot like ‘04 and ‘05 with one noticeable difference – many of the key components aren’t kids anymore.

C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta and Cliff Lee, for example, have been around and have established themselves as solid to outstanding major leaguers. They have also been rewarded with some semblance of financial security by ownership.

In other words, the payroll is up and youth is no longer a crutch to lean on when times are bad.

More should be expected, right?

The bad news is, since the all-star break, the team has stumbled – especially the bats. A lack of hitting, especially in the clutch, has everyone who follows this team worried once again.

Now the good news - The Tigers have been just as bad and the Tribe is still in the hunt with the final stretch run (September) right around the corner. All will be forgotten if Martinez, Sizemore and company get hot down the stretch and the pitching holds up.

But if you are Paul Dolan, you have to be worried.

He needs a playoff run to recoup some of his financial investment in the team, appease the fans and help build his season ticket base and excitement for 2008.

His general manager went out on the limb and signed the manager (Eric Wedge) to a contract extension before the final report card was in.

And fans aren’t likely to be so forgiving this time around if the Tribe narrowly misses out on post-season play for the third time in four years..

After the dismantling of the team post new millennium, fans were told the building process would lead to “contention” in 2005. Shapiro, Dolan and company delivered on their promise.

Unfortunately, fans didn’t read the fine print – “contention” means just that – nothing more, nothing less.

Unless the players finally deliver, “contention” might be all you get wirth this group.

Romeo’s Six-Week Window

Coaches all have honeymoon periods in their new environments. In the case of Romeo Crennel, he's gone from his honeymoon period in 2005 to a six-week window to show he can lead this football team beyond 2007.

The Browns have four of their first six games at home, with all three divisional opponents coming to town during that stretch. It is imperative they are sitting a 3-3 or better if Crennel hopes to coach this team when the Browns play the St Louis Rams coming off a bye week on October 28.

While a.500 early start gives him a reprieve, a 2-4 mark puts him in serious jeopardy and anything worse will likely lead to a bye week change at the helm.

Crennel is the type of person you want to root for. He is a class act with several Super Bowl rings to his credit. Unfortunately, in today’s instant gratification society, patience is lacking – especially in Cleveland, where the team has produced just one short playoff appearance since its return.

Crennel knows full-well he’s on the hot seat.

What makes that seat even warmer is the potential Hall of Fame coaching talent that is currently available in the open market.

Bill Cowher and Marty Schottenheimer are currently unemployed (in terms of coaching), have outstanding resumes and serious Cleveland ties.

It won’t take long for rumors to swirl if the Browns start the 2007 like they did in 2006. There will be immense pressure on Browns’ ownership to finally hire a former head NFL coach with a proven track record.

In Cowher and Schottenheimer, we are talking about two guys with 349 NFL wins between them. And no one believes these two coaches will stay off the sidelines for more than a year – at best.

The problem is other teams will likely be making the same phone calls – much to the delight of their agents I’m sure. The asking price may reach $10 million a year or more. The bidding war will likely start in October, with teams that fall flat on their face in September.

Romeo Crennel knows his window of opportunity is small. He understands the business he’s in. For his sake, the sake of Browns’ fans and ownership, here’s hoping this team isn’t part of that upcoming discussion when the leaves turn brown.

It will mean they will perhaps have started to turn the corner.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Random Thoughts Aug19'07

Thoughts On The Tribe

Up The Middle
If he hits, I would play Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop and move Jhonny Peralta to second. Peralta has limited range for a shortstop but an above average bat. Cabrera has a reputation as having an above average glove for a shortstop. It makes sense to have the stronger middle infielder at shortstop instead of second.

Of course, the Indians probably won’t consider such a move in the middle of a pennant race. They also don’t want to offend Peralta. Such is the business of pro sports today – where we have to worry about a player’s psyche. It’s not enough to make a seven figure annual salary. We also can’t hurt their feelings.

However, look for such a move prior to the start of the 2008 season. It makes too much sense not to.

The other option is to move Casey Blake to second (alla Jeff Kent). Blake might be a good enough athlete to pull it off. However, with the scenario, you are asking two players to play new positions – Peralta at third and Blake at second. That might be too much movement.

Of course this is all based on the belief that Cabrera is the real deal defensively as we’ve been led to believe. As for Josh Barfield, he simply has to hit to get back in the picture. His 2007 season to date has been less than stellar. The good news is he’s young. The bad news is his confidence can’t be too high right now.

#3 Hole
Speaking of hurt feelings, Eric Wedge finally moved Grady Sizemore out of the #1 hole and stuck him third. I say “stuck him third” because with Hafner’s sub par year, the Indians’ line up has been unproductive for some time. They currently have no one to plug into that hole. Sizemore strikes out too much to be a true #3 hitter. Martinez is their best hitter right now, but they have him covering the cleanup spot.

We were concerned when the Tribe committed $14 million a year to a DH. Hopefully, this is a one-year slump for Hafner. The Indians can’t afford their highest paid player under-performing. It hurts them on the field, causing shockwaves with the rest of the line-up, and it puts a huge rip in the team’s pocketbook.

In The Clutch
As a team, the Tribe has underachieved offensively in the clutch this season. That’s not a bulletin. Most of the starters have worse batting averages with runners in scoring position than they do otherwise.

This is, for the most part, the same group that wilted down the stretch in 2005. The excuse we were given that year was that they were “young.” So they were given a pass by most fans and media.

What’s the excuse this time around if they don’t reach the post-season?

Granted, management hasn’t done much to help, but the players are the ones who swing the bats, throw the pitches and catch the ball. Many of these players have been given long-term financial security.

It’s time they deliver. Otherwise, they will get a reputation as players who put up decent numbers but can’t close the deal when it counts most.

You can come to your own conclusion as to what that means.

Wedge
Finally, Eric Wedge’s move not to bunt Peralta in the bottom of the eighth inning, in a tie game against Detroit with a runner on second and no one out earlier in the week, was simply a mistake.

That situation cried for a bunt.

First, Peralta is not a contact hitter. He strikes out too much – meaning he doesn’t handle the bat well enough to be expected to move the runner over on his own.

Secondly, Peralta wasn’t swinging the bat well at the time – another reason why green-lighting him made no sense.

Third, it’s the safe/right play in that situation at home. You get the bunt down and put a runner on third with one out and force the Tigers to play the infield in – making the next hitter much more dangerous.

And please don’t tell me it would not have mattered because the next two hitters after Peralta struck out. With a runner on third and one out, that changes the pitch selection, as well as possibly forcing the opposing manager (Jim Leyland) to walk the next two hitters to load the bases to set up the force.

And if the excuse is Peralta is not a good bunter – then have him work at it! Perhaps if he continues to fail at it and hears enough boos, he’ll work harder at it and get better at doing it.

Wedge had a meltdown. There’s no other way to explain it. And this team can’t afford that from their manager during a pennant race. I hope he has a coach or two around him with enough guts to give their two cents in that situation. If they all agreed that was the right move at the time - having Peralta swing away - then the Indians are in more trouble than we think.

I’m all for thinking out of the box – in fact, I’m a huge proponent of it. But that wasn’t the time for it.

Lions vs. Browns
I'll make this short and sweet.

The defense should be in the middle of the pack in the league - much like a year ago.

The first half against the Lions was brutal to watch - comical at times with the offense's inability to even gets plays off in time and false starts.

Dorsey showed why he's the second best quarterback currently on this roster.

We won't mention the other quarterbacks. We've covered that ad nauseum in past posts.

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Random Thoughts Aug12'07

Chiefs vs. Browns
Folks that read this column know I don't believe Charlie Frye has a high football IQ. So I'll just say it was not a good decision to run into several Chief defenders near the goal line when you have no time outs remaining with mere seconds left in the half.

I can hear the post-game press conference now.

Reporter: "What was the thinking process on that play, Charlie?"

Frye: "I just wasn't thinking. I made a mistake. I have to learn to throw the ball away in that situation."

Reporter: "Your thoughts on that play, coach?"

Romeo C.: "Charlie has to learn to throw that ball away. But overall, I thought he did some good things He moved the team."

Now a reality check.

How long has Frye been playing QB? And he hasn't learned that yet?

The way I see it, Frye was -7 on the day. That's right, -7.

He led them to a first half field goal (+3). Nice work there. Then, he gave up seven when he botched a simple dump pass to a back that led to a backward lateral returned for a score
(-4). And of course, he cost his team another three with his blunder to end the half (-7).

As for Anderson.

Who cares?

These are just wasted pre-season snaps.

Quinn will eventually be running the show. At some point, RC should name Quinn the starter and get on with it. As young and raw as he is right now, he has the up side the franchise has been looking for.

Let him learn on the job. It might be ugly at times, but there's nowhere to go but up. There's also the chance he may catch on quickly.

Crennel can't do it just yet because the rookie showed up late. So he'll bust his chops for a while.

I get it.

But if Quinn doesn't look totally overmatched in pre-season, RC should turn him loose soon.

Listen up class: Contrary to popular belief, the quarterback position should be the easiest position to evaluate. I said should be.

How can that be you ask?

Because he touches the ball on every play. That's 60-70 snaps a game. If you have any common sense and football knowledge, you shouldn't need three years to evaluate if a guy can play.

That's one reason why I am always surprised when NFL teams continue to screw up the evaluation process with the most important position on the field - QB.

There are numerous other factors at work - we know this, including the other 10 players on the field with the QB, the opponent, the game plan, etc...

Still, some guys have it and some guys don't. You see it on a handful of plays during a game when a guy makes you go "wow." Or, when a guy makes you throw a pillow at the screen.

The ones that are consistent, make you go "wow" once in a while and allow you to keep the pillows on the sofa most of the time are the keepers.

One more comment on Charlie Frye. He should not have to look to the sidelines as to when a timeout is needed in the final minute of a half or a game. He did that several times last year and did it again against the Chiefs in the final minute of the first half in pre-season game #1.

He should have a much better feel for the game then that. He's not a rookie any more.

Indians vs. Yankees
I had a bad feeling before this series started.

I don't believe the Tribe has done well against quality opponents this summer. Plus, the Yankees can flat out hit, the Indians are in the middle of the pack in the league in pitching, and the Tribe's offense has been anemic of late. That bodes poorly for those fans that bought tickets expecting to be on their feet roaring for the Tribe this weekend.

Finally, strangely, the team has done a complete 180 this season offensively. At one point in the season, the Tribe's offense had seen more pitches that any team in the league. That meant the hitters were doing an excellent job making the opposing pitchers work. At that time, they were leading the league in scoring.

In the last several weeks, they have reversed that trend. There is now lack of patience at the plate and a lack of contact - they have several players among the league-leaguers in striking out. Those are very bad trends.

I can't explain it.

On another Tribe topic, my son observed early this season that Casey Blake seemed to have trouble hitting in the clutch. I ignored him. He mentioned it again the other night. Then I saw a stat that showed Blake hitting .160 with runners in scoring position and .120 with two outs and runners in scoring position in 2007.

I wish we were given a player's stats with runners in scoring position more often. It should come up on the television screen every time a player comes up in that situation. That's when the pressure is on.

You should listen to your kids. They know some stuff.

Ferry APB
I have finally figured out what happened to Cavs' GM Danny Ferry. He's in the witness protection program.

Why you ask?

Sources tell me Wayne Embry wants a piece of him for making him (Embry) look bad after the big guy traded for Ferry's rights after the Duke star bolted overseas coming out of college.

Embry was wrong and eventually taken to task by fans and media when Ferry never turned into a poor man's Larry Bird.

In all seriousness, we hope Ferry has Embry's cell number. Embry, who is in the NBA Hall of Fame for his post playing days contribution to the sport, could teach Ferry a few things about being an effective GM.

The Cavaliers had their best days under Embry in the late 80s and early 90s. He was not afraid to pull the trigger on major deals (i.e. Larry Nance), knowing full well they don't always work out (i.e. Ron Harper). Embry understood you couldn't be afraid to fail.

Saturday, August 4, 2007

Random Thoughts Aug5'07

Deadline Dud
For the third time in the last four years (’04, ’05, ’07), Indians’ GM Mark Shapiro failed to pull the trigger on any significant acquisitions prior to the July 31 trading deadline to help his team during the stretch run. All the Tribe has to show for his (Shapiro’s) efforts is Kenny Lofton. That’s not a good track record spanning three contending teams in four years. In 2004, we were told they weren’t ready to contend – even though the standings said otherwise. In ’05, he made no moves and the team wilted in September. We’ll see what happens in ’07.

One thing is also clear, the Indians aren’t likely to be playing come October if their recently signed eight figure a year players, Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook, don’t step up during the final two months of play. Both have been disappointments so far this summer.

The irony is one can argue the Tribe is better prepared for a short series today that 10 years ago when post-season appearances were the norm in Cleveland.

CC and Carmona give the Indians more than a puncher’s chance if they (Indians) were to advance. Having those two on the hill five times in a seven-game series bodes well. Unfortunately, you have to get there first.

The other factor no one is talking about is the real possibility that CC is pitching for the last time in an Indians’ uniform in August and September. Unless the Tribe is ready to break the bank to sign him – can you say $20 million a year - he will likely be dealt before next year’s July 31 trading deadline arrives.

So why not go for it in ’07 while you still have the core of this team intact and two horses on the mound?

Only Shapiro can answer that question. A GM earns the bulk of his paycheck during the off-season and prior to the trading deadline. Shapiro gets an A- for his off-season work, but a D for his July deadline performance. The Lofton pickup kept him from earning his third F in the last four years. A couple of quality bullpen arms and another big bat were desperately needed. Once again, he didn’t get it done.

Trot
Trot Nixon should be sitting and the younger, more athletic outfielders on the roster should be playing. Nixon’s numbers don’t justify his bat staying in the line-up. This isn’t the first time a manager stays with the veteran down the stretch hoping his experience will make a difference. We disagree this time.

Quinn & Camp
Let’s not get carried away with Brady Quinn not being signed and in camp just yet. He’ll eventually arrive. This is just the business side of sports rearing its head. Besides, all will be forgotten after his first good pre-season performance.

KG
Give Danny Ainge credit for thinking out of the box and acquiring Kevin Garnett. Most GMs don’t have the guts to do what he did. Ainge now has three all-stars on his roster – all of whom are itching for a chance to reach the Finals. Ainge isn’t thinking five years down the line. He’s going for it now.

Besides, in today’s professional sports world, you can’t think beyond three years. Too much changes too quickly today to believe any GM who still uses the worn out line - “We aren’t going to mortgage the future for a chance to win now.” If you hear that silliness, it’s often a GM covering his @$$ for non-activity and poor production.

As for the Celtics, they are far from a perfect team, but they have created excitement, improved their roster and put themselves in a position to compete in the eastern conference.

Tank In Cleveland
The Browns should sign recently released DT Tank Johnson – formerly of the Chicago Bears. From a football standpoint, he would be one of their best defensive linemen. It would be a minimal risk deal for the Browns. If he reverts to his old habits, you release him. If he behaves off the field, you’ve added a solid run stopper in the prime of his career.

Culpepper In Oakland
Speaking of quarterbacks, the Raiders made a good move adding D. Culpepper to their roster. He was putting up Hall of Fame numbers when he was healthy and throwing to Carter and Moss. He’s fallen on hard times since, but he’s still relatively young for a QB, and if healthy, is still better than 80% of signal-callers starting in the NFL today. Besides, he will at minimum, be a good mentor for J. Russell, once he reports.