Monday, April 27, 2009

Pos NFL Draft Thoughts

Why in the world would the Eagles or Giants, both in desperate need of a #1 receiver, decide to reach for rookies to fill their needs via the draft, instead of making a deal for proven NFL receivers on the market? That’s mind boggling.

The talking head who made the most sense on ESPN over the weekend was easily Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young when he continued to press the point that if you don’t have a top-flight quarterback, you have a hard time CONSISTENTLY winning football games. He especially ridiculed the Broncos for trading a proven commodity, leaving a huge hole at the most important position on the football field in Denver. At least, they got some value in return (two first rounders).

Who was the best tight end available in the draft? Easy. Tony Gonzalez.

I hope the Lions nailed it taking Stafford, but I have one concern with him going in – he might have had the best collegiate skilled players in the country around him. His running back at Georgia was the first back taken in the draft, one of his receivers was taken in round 2 by the Browns, and the so-called experts claimed he had a stud freshman catch balls as well for him in 2008. The dude had help.

I heard a funny line that supposedly came from either the Raiders’ front office or coaching staff in terms of why they took a safety from Ohio University relatively early on in the draft when most other NFL teams didn’t even have him listed on their draft board. Oakland’s people claimed “he really came on strong the past couple weeks.” This begs the question – What games did the young man play in this April? Clearly, the Raiders and many other NFL teams, value what they see after the football season more than what the players did when they actually wore pads in the fall. That makes absolutely no sense to me and never will, no matter how they spin it.

I love the New York media. Many on the coast are already predicting Mark Sanchez as the “2009 AFC Rookie of the Year,” comparing his swagger to Joe Namath and giving him my favorite tag of all – “franchise quarterback.” I guess we can soon expect ESPN to be doing daily updates from Jets’ camp on how Sanchez is adapting to his new team.

Now, let's look at the Browns' draft.

If you read my previous entry, you were aware I preferred quality over quantity in terms of draft philosophy and that I wanted Cleveland to come away with a minimum of two of the following five players (in order of importance), in the 2009 draft – Crabtree (TT), Maualuga (USC), Jenkins (OSU) Moreno (GU) and Wells (OSU).

And yes, the way the draft evolved, they could have easily had a combination of the two considering Maualaga’s free fall into the second round, as well as other factors.

Am I upset? No. Disappointed? Yes.

Remember, the first commandment when following sports is NEVER COMMENT ON A PLAYER YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN. Therefore, I will wait and see how the Jets’ players acquired on Saturday play for Cleveland this fall, along with how Mangini’s draft choices perform in 2009. That only makes sense, right?

Nonethess, I do have some general observations to make.

I thought Robiskie was a reach where they took him. He may be the most polished receiver coming out due to the good blood lines, but having seen him play extensively at OSU, he look like a good #3 NFL receiver who has a chance to be a decent #2. To me, that’s third round territory at best. There is one caveat in his favor however - in his senior season, he had a freshman quarterback throwing him passes who couldn’t hit the ocean with a flat pass even if he was standing in it. Hopefully, he'll be a solid #2 - a guy who consistently moves the chains for you.

As for their other picks, including their first round (center Alex Mack), I can’t comment until I see them play some. Sorry.

One thing is for sure, the Browns did well in the draft in terms of cumulative ACT/SAT scores. Several of their picks were Academic All-Conference and/or Academic All-American performers. I am not making light of this fact. I would much rather have smart guys that can play over C students and/or morons that can play. Intelligent football players pick the system up much quicker (can you spell Cedric Benson), don’t make the same mistakes over and over again and are less likely to cause the head coach to have to answer that 3.a.m. phone call informing him one of his players just got picked up for DWI, was hauled off to jail after trashing a nightclub or was arrested for trying to buy some coke from an undercover cop.

So what do we know about Mangini and company at this point.

First, they wanted quantity in terms of players in an attempt to plug the numerous holes likely to be found on the 4-12 team, Second, they didn’t give “Butterfingers” away – which is good. Remember, if he plays well in ’09 for Cleveland, he can’t walk away unless the Browns get a #1 and a #3 in return. So what’s the rush to deal him? Third, they like smart football players – nothing wrong with that. That formula works fine in New England. Next, he (Mangini) does have a sense of humor and/or pulse – when he indicated former ball boys (himself and Robiskie) become success stories. And finally, this organization is not going to win any style points in terms of how they go about their business (i.e. very vanilla like approach). That’s all well and good, as long as that vanilla approach results in many more wins than losses during his tenure in Cleveland instead of mediocrity – which is what is already on Mangini’s three-year New York Jets’ coaching resume.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Pre-NFL Draft Entry

What I Would Do On Draft Day If I Ran The Browns
I have been asked by a couple friends – yes, I have a couple friends – what I would do if I were the Browns on draft day.

And since I pride myself of first guessing instead of second guessing, I’ll take a whack at it.

Note that I did not spend every Saturday afternoon watching college football this past Fall. However, I did see enough to make a few observations on a handful of this weekend’s potential picks.

Plan A involves taking WR Michael Crabtree with the fifth overall pick.

Keep it simple stupid (KISS) – the Browns need playmakers and they are weak at wide receiver. If he’s not a meathead, I take him (MC) and have my #1 receiver for the next eight years.

Of course, I have no knowledge of his off-the-field manners. My picks are based on talent alone at this point.

Secondly, I would only deal “Butterfingers” for my price.

If it’s a late #1 (i.e. Giants), I would want a WR also coming back (i.e. Smith or Hickson) and a second day pick. If it’s a mid-#1, I’ll be happy with that and a second day pick.

In our last entry, we noted we would keep Edwards unless we were overwhelmed. I still feel that way as you can tell by what I want in return.

If someone meets my price, I would then use that pick (i.e. Giants’ #1) and one of my second rounders and trade back up into the middle of the first round and take one of the three following players in this order of importance – L Rey Maualuga, DB Malcolm Jenkins, or RB Knowshon Moreno.

If I get a mid-first rounder for Edwards, I have my extra #1 pick in place to take one of the players off my short list, and I keep my two second rounders. Yes, I know that price is likely to high for other NFL teams.

I happen to think, as stated in last week’s entry, that Crabtree, Maualuga and Jenkins will all have long and successful NFL careers.

Simply put - I want two of these players on the Browns’ roster by draft’s end.

Also, I believe that Moreno is the best all-around back in this draft – based on the limited college football I have seen this past season.

My thinking is simple – if I’m spending mid-first round money on a guy who carries the ball, I want a player who will be on the field all three downs, including on 3rd and 7.

That doesn’t mean I have totally soured on Chris Wells. But his past injuries, coupled with the fact that he has little experience coming out of the backfield at OSU, tells me Moreno is a slightly better investment.

Finally, I would use my leftover second rounder(s) to take the best player(s) available on the board – short of a QB. That happens to be their deepest position, with one guy who made the Pro Bowl, DA, (albeit under unusual circumstances), and another who they already invested heavily in (a #1 & #2 for Brady Quinn).

And no, I don’t believe the ridiculous rumors the Browns are going to take Mark Sanchez at #5 and deal Quinn.

Why the hell would they take a QB with that high a pick when they have HUGE holes to fill elsewhere?

I’ll assume Mangini isn’t a total moron and he’s just posturing in case others want that pick to take Sanchez and are willing to pay a huge price for it.

Finally, If I were the Browns, I would be aggressive in trading back up on day #2 and acquiring guys they really like who begin to slide. I am a big proponent of quality picks over quantity of picks.

In other words, target certain guys you love and go get them. If I also have to deal 2010 picks to do so - fine.

If I can’t get what I want for Edwards, I would go to Plan B, which involves keeping “Butterfingers” in 2009 and hope he has a huge year next to Crabtree.

That would be a win-win for all concerned – Quinn, Edwards and the Browns. I would deal with his (BE) potential free agency situation at the appropriate time.

In Plan B, I keep BE, still take Crabtree at 5 and use my second round picks to try to get back into the first round and chase down one of those players (LB, DB, RB)mentioned earlier.

If I can’t make that happen, then I turn to Plan C and OSU’s Wells, hoping he slips late in the first round and try to move up a few slots from the fifth pick in round 2to acquire him.

In that scenario, I get depth at RB to go along with my playmaker at WR.

In other words, having Edwards, who teams want, and two second rounders, gives Cleveland enough versatility and wiggle room to get back into the first round if they see fit after taking Crabtree.

That would be my goal – to come away with two impact players (Crabtree and either Maualuga or Jenkins). Moreno is my fourth choice on that short list.

Notice, I, unlike others, want them to take offense early. I have already stated in past entries why I believe that makes sense for this team, even though most folks want them to draft defense early and often.

But again, I’m not “most folks.”

Here’s another reason why they should go my route – impact skilled position players (i.e. guys who touch the ball) can make a huge impact on your NFL team in year 1 if you nail the pick (i.e. Adrian Peterson in MN).

Rarely do defensive players have the same level of early impact.

Mark Sanchez Love Fest
Speaking of Sanchez, it seems to me the less Pro teams have of you on tape, the more likely you will move up in the draft prior to draft day instead of slipping.

This year’s hot item is USC QB Mark Sanchez, who has just 16 college starts to go along with some good looking workouts when he’s wearing a t-shirt and shorts while throwing to his buddies in the Southern California sun.

I have no idea if Sanchez will be a good pro or not. He looked really good in the Bowl game he played in, so his stock went way up.

Can anyone say “JaMarcus Russell,” who will have a hard time keeping his starting job in Oakland now that Jeff Garcia is in town.

We questioned that pick then, and so far, he (JR) looks more like Tim Couch than Peyton Manning. For his sake, I hope he figures it out.

I know this much – prior to January, no-one, I repeat no one, had Sanchez rated as a top-10 pick. Now, he’s the hottest thing since the pet rock.

Again, I like Sanchez of the little I've seen. But that's the point - I've seen little of him. Plus, he's playing at USC, where you have tons of NFL talent around you. That tends to make you look better than you are at times - especially when you break down pro careers of recent USC picks on the offensive side of the ball.

Just giving you something to think about.

My guess is if the scouts and draft gurus had three year’s worth of film on him (Sanchez), they would find flaws and he wouldn’t be such a hot commodity right now.

I also believe if he (Sanchez) went 18-of-35 with two TD passes and one pick in his recent Bowl appearance, he would be considered a mid to late first rounder at best.

Perhaps that’s one reason why over half of these guys fail – including first day picks.

Wear A Mask Next Time
This leads me to another mindbender. The Falcons just robbed K.C. and they didn’t even have to use a weapon in carrying out their dastardly deed.

How do you trade a future first ballot Hall of Famer (TE Tony Gonzalez), who is coming off a 90+ catch season, for a mere second round pick – and next year’s #2 at that?

Now, perhaps Gonzalez demanded a trade. So what. If I don’t get close to equal value (i.e. a mid first rounder and a second day pick, or two second rounders), I keep him. Period.

Yes, I’ll Watch Some Of It
I will actually will watch some of the draft tomorrow to see what happens. Thank goodness they cut the time back to 10 minutes in-between picks.

Now if they could cut it back to five minutes in-between first round selections, I might stick around longer.

Don't Even Try to Figure These Guys (Morons) Out
I would NEVER invest millions in a guy who flunked a pre-draft drug test HE KNEW WAS COMING.

Yea, that’s you Percy Harvin!

I know what you are thinking – what about Randy Moss?. Right. For every Randy Moss, there are 10 morons who don’t’ make it.

Regardless, I’m sure there will be some NFL team that takes him in round 1 and the GM will explain it away to the media as “a kid who did a dumb thing.”

Which begs the question – If he’s dumb enough to do such a dumb thing prior to having millions, what kind of mischief do you think he’ll get into once you pay him?

Till next time!

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Tribe's Start, Cavs' Title Run & Browns' Draft

Indians’ Start
Panic is setting in with the Tribe after a 1-7 start. The pitching has been horrible, the defense poor and the offense average at best.

Things are likely to change for the better. They aren’t this bad. That is unless Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona don’t get locked in soon.

Forget what you hear elsewhere. That’s all background noise. This is the key to a competitive season - Your horses on the mound have to deliver.

We noted a while back, with CC gone, these two guys (Lee & Carmona) needed to combine for a minimum of 30-32 wins for the Tribe to be competitive in their division – especially with all the other question marks (aka: fragile arms) on this pitching staff.

If Lee doesn’t settle into 2004-2006 form and Carmona continues to find too much of the plate with his stuff, this start will not be an anomaly and it truly will be a long season.

Here’s the good news – Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner have shown some power early. Unfortunately, that’s been hidden with all the pitching woes.

Remember this - the Tribe is likely to have a Plan B if their fragile arms don’t hack it. There is no Plan B for when your expected #1 and #2 starters falter.

Cavaliers
Congratulations to the Cleveland Cavaliers for achieving home court advantage throughout the playoffs. This is an important achievement if you want to win a title.

There are no excuses left. This is the best team in the NBA in 2008-09 and they will have ample opportunity and the well-earned advantage (homecourt) to prove it over the next two months.

As we noted prior to Thanksgiving, there should be a parade down Superior Avenue some time in June. I hope Cleveland fans enjoy it and behave themselves.

One request - Please, no “Detroit style celebration.” We don’t need burning cars, broken glass and cops using clubs and tear gas to subdue the morons.

By the way, I won’t be attending. As you know – I don’t like crowds of any kind.

Browns
The last silly rumor had the Browns in a three-way trade with Denver and another team involving Jay Cutler going elsewhere and the Browns trading Brady Quinn.

That never materialized of course.

Now, one local television talking head has Quinn leaving for sure on draft day, or before, for a #1 pick.

Right.

Follow this logic - Let’s dump the young quarterback on the roster other teams want, before giving him a chance to show if he’s got game, and turn the offense over to the quarterback (DA) others don’t want, who failed in ’08 and the fans have turned on.

That would be a great PR move heading into year #1 of the Mangini ERA.

Could you imagine that announcement on draft day and the reaction of semi-intelligent Browns fans everywhere?

Imagine what the drunk Quinn fans would do? And I’m only talking about the women who love his (Quinn’s) looks.

My wife, who is not a drunk, but loves Quinn, asked me this question when she heard this new rumor?

“Why would Mangini do something so stupid so soon?

I re-assured her, no need to panic – yet. This one (rumor) makes no sense either.

Talking heads love to throw mud on the wall and hope something sticks so they can say they were first on the story. And now with the internet, this silliness is totally out of hand – especially at this time of year.

By the way, I would love to have been a fly on the wall if/when Mangini and company told Randy Lerner of this plan.

As for the “Butterfingers” rumors, which make some sense, again, I would not deal him for a second round draft pick (Giants) and a #3 receiver.

We noted in our last entry the reasons why. If I could get a mid-#1 pick and a #3 receiver in return, yes. If not, I sit with Braylon and hope he has a big year on the opposite side of Michael Crabtree.

My Top 3
A footnote first – I have not see most of this year’s draft class play.

Regardless, here are three guys I have seen play who I believe will be anywhere from good pros (aka: 10 year starters) to perennial Pro Bowlers 9 - assuming good health.

1. Michael Crabtree (WR/Texas Tech) – Hopefully, the Browns won’t get cute with this pick and just take Crabtree and watch a taller Hines Ward potentially set a franchise record for career receptions.

2. Malcolm Jenkins (DB/Ohio State) – He’s athletic, versatile (CB and/or S), will also make plays on special teams while starting in your secondary from day one.

3. Rey Maualuga (LB/USC) - He can play either inside or outside, constantly wins the battle at point of impact (something the Browns need badly) and will make big plays.

If yours truly were in charge of the Brown and Orange, Plan A would not only include taking Crabtree at 5, but also trying to get back into the first round to land Jenkins or Maualuga if they slide. However, I would not deal Quinn as part of this plan. There are other ways of getting this done.

Andre Smith (OL/Alabama)
I love this story.

This knucklehead costs himself between $10-15 million with his off the field exploits the past several months, and yet, some NFL team is STILL going to be stupid enough to make him a top-10 pick.

Why?

We are told by the talking heads that his coach at Alabama, the wonderful Nick Saban (aka: the coaching Gypsy), has vouched for Smith and re-assured the pros, this guy (Smith) is not a trouble-maker – regardless of what your eyes and ears tell you.

First, why would anyone believe anything Nick Saban told them? There was no way he was leaving Miami, right? He absolutely loved it at LSU, correct?

And secondly, what was he supposed to do when asked about Smith – tell the truth and let everyone know the kid is a risk?

That would go over real well with the other players in his program at LSU and potential recruits.

This was classic Nick Saban looking out for Nick Saban and nothing more.

I wouldn’t touch Smith. Remember, 50% of draft picks with good work ethics and clean backgrounds don’t make it.

What do you think the odds of making it in the NFL for those who have off-the-field issues?

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Hits & Misses

Jay Cutler Is A Baby
He whined like a toddler after learning his new head coach might prefer to go with his guy (Matt Cassel). Then Jay Cutler asked to be traded while ignoring calls from the guy who signed his checks.

Once the Broncos had enough of this impetuous toddler and dealt him, Cutler told the world he didn’t want it to end this way – with a trade. Right.

The guy does have a big arm and a lot of up side, but he also carries with him a huge ego when you consider the fact that he’s a career sub .500 quarterback. Nonetheless, he does have skills.

Right now, he's a top-10 quarterback talent-wise in the NFL, who hasn't won a thing.

Now if only the talking heads would stop referring to him as a ‘franchise quarterback.” Once, again, that label should be placed on someone AFTER they have proven it, not before they are drafted (fill in this year’s phenom) or after a couple good statistical seasons.

I nearly pop a blood vessel when they go there.

Chicago Surprise
The Bears finally went after and acquired a legitimate quarterback (Cutler) - giving up what a quality, young NFL QB should be worth - two #1s.

Shocking!

The question remains – will they (Bears) let him sling it all over the park or will he also be throwing screens and running draws on 3rd and 8, like every other Bears’ quarterback since the Apollo space program got started.

Mr. Bill Got Taken
Cutler goes for a pair of #1s and Cassel goes for a mere #2? Granted, Cutler has put up some good individual numbers, but he's lost more than he's won and Cassel was 11-5 in his first year as a starter.

I know, I know - Cassel had a much better team around him. You're right. But Mr. Bill only got a #2? That one still confuses me.

Cavs Panic
The Cavaliers actually lost two straight games and I heard the local fans and media panicking already. Nothing has changed – if they secure home court, they win the NBA Championship. If they don’t, it still boils down to 23 having to outplay Kobe in game #7 - in LA of course. Either way, won’t it be fun to watch?

Butterfingers
Now that the Giants cut Plaxico, look for them to make a real push for Braylon Edwards. This long-discussed rumor actually makes sense now.

Here’s the rub – unless the offer is one they can’t refuse, I keep Butterfingers. I’ve done a 180 on this one after further enlightened thought.

Here's the accompanying thought process.

I’ve never liked dealing players when their value is at its lowest. Besides, he’s in his option year and should put up good numbers in ’09. He can’t possibly repeat 2008, can he?

Remember, this is coming from someone who wanted to deal BE a year ago when he actually had a ton of trade value. We were the only one with human DNA on that bandwagon then and may be in the minority now. I don’t care. I’m right.

Crabtree
I’ve gone back and forth on this one but finally have decided to come back full circle to our original first choice for what the Browns should do with their first round pick – take Michael Crabtree.

Having Crabtree on one side and Butterfingers on the other means one of the two will get consistent single coverage. It also gives them two legitimate starting NFL receivers – something they don’t currently have on the roster.

That’s really scary when you think about it.

Remember, while everyone is telling you their defense stinks – which it does – this is a team that set an NFL record of ineptitude by not scoring an offensive touchdown covering TWO complete holiday periods – Thanksgiving and Christmas.

I know they had no QB for much of that stretch, but they weren’t exactly lighting it up prior to DA and Quinn going down.

Lets’ just agree they need a ton of help on BOTH sides of the ball.

Now, here is the only scenario that changes my first round plans for the Brown/Orange:

If Denver, who has no QB, is willing to give Cleveland its two first round picks in order to move up to take Mark Sanchez at #5, I make that deal.

That would give the Browns two #1s and two 2s. You can fill several holes for a long time if you bat .750 with those four picks.

I would then pray the Samoan LB from USC drops and they can get him with the first #1and, then take the best available WR or RB with the other #1. With the two 2s, you take the best player(s) left on your board at that time – unless he’s a QB.

Finally, all this talk about a QB competition between DA and Quinn come the summer is BS.

Think about it - do you really think Lerner, who likes Quinn and has made public statements about finally wanting to see what he has in his investment (#1 & #2 for Quinn), would have hired Mangini if he thought the new coach was going to put the owner through another year of QB musical chairs?

What – you don’t think the QB situation came up during the interview process? Right.

Look for Mangini and his handpicked GM, to deal DA prior to or during the draft. Yes, his value is at its lowest also, but they can’t afford to keep two QBs with all those holes. We’ve covered this ground.

That begs the question – what can you get for him? Right know, I would settle for two 3s. I’ll also settle for one #3 coupled with moving up a few slots on day one of the draft if someone they love slips.

He’s (DA) their only real bargaining chip come draft day, this side of Buttefingers. And you simply can’t deal BE with Winslow already gone and Stallworth about to do time.

Draft Reminder
We go to this disclaimer every year but it needs repeating. It's not the first round that make a draft, it's what you do after the first round. A halfwit should be able to find a good football player in round #1. Good organizations consistently find good players after the commissioner leaves the "meet and greet" session near the podium aired on ESPN on draft day.

World Series Champions
Sorry. It’s the Yankees. They picked up most of the top free agents in the off-season - retooling their starting staff in the process. Spending well in excess of $200 million will do that for you.

I hope I’m way off on this one.

Indians
Why are so many baseball people picking the Indians to win the Central? I hope they are right, but Cleveland has too many fragile arms they are depending on to expect that staff to hold up over 162 games.

Secondly, if Cliff Lee's spring doesn't worry you, it should. I would take 16 wins from him right now and be happy, but no one really has a clue what he's going to do in 2009, and that should be cause for concern.

This is totally uncharted territory - a pitcher who was sent down one season (2007) coming back to win the Cy Young the next (2008).

And this guy starts the season as their #1. That's another reason I couldn't pick them to win more than 86-88 games tops.