Sunday, April 4, 2010

Short & Quick

Grand Experiment
A first took place in the history of baseball a couple weeks ago and hardly anyone noticed. Minnesota catcher, Joe Mauer, the best catcher in baseball, signed an 8-year/$180+ million deal with his hometown Twins.

This corner assumed he would be wearing pin stripes or Red Sox garb in 2011 since his current deal was up after 2010. That’s what usually happens when a small/mid-market superstar reaches free agency. That or he’s dealt for prospects prior to leaving to cushion the blow.

In this case, Mauer stayed home – literally, since he’s from Minnesota. No, he didn’t give his beloved Twins a hometown discounts based on the figures released. And that’s the point. The Twins still signed him – large market price tag and all.

That’s never been done before!

Folks in Cleveland can attest to that. Ditto for Oakland and other mid-size franchises that have had to say goodbye to stars they drafted, developed and nurtured.

We have been told over and over again that these mid-markets cannot sustain signing its stars and still remain competitive.

The logic is as follows – you can’t commit a quarter or more of your yearly 25 player budget to one guy and remain competitive.

Well, Minnesota is about to test that theory the Clevelands, Oaklands, Milwaukees, etc… have avoided at all cost.

Yes, I know the Twins have the added advantage of heading into a new ballpark. That should certain help with meeting budget. But the fact remains, the Twins paid what they had to in keeping their best player. Period.

Strip everything else from the scenario and you have the Twins saying we don’t care if Mauer goes down, we’re paying the price. We don’t care if he underachieves, we’re paying the price. We don’t care if he’s a shell of himself the last couple years of this deal, we’re paying the price. We don’t care if this deal makes him untradeable to 90% of the ML clubs, we’re paying the price.

Folks, that took balls – especially in this uncertain economic market.

To that, we say well done Twins.

This is your best player, a hometown kid, a great young man and a Future Hall of Famer. Regardless of whether it made sense or not economically, this was the right move for this organization, with this player, at this time in their history.

I’m not a bean counter, but I assume there were those in the organization that crunch numbers who stepped up and said this deal will make it difficult for this team to have the flexibility to remain competitive over the long-run.

Regardless, the Twins obviously looked at all angles and decided to make the fans happy. From a PR standpoint, this made sense. Try selling tickets, even in a new stadium, when you let the state’s biggest star go.

For their sake and for the other mid-market teams who will be watching this experiment closely (i.e. Indians), let’s hope it works and the Twins remain competitive while Mauer draws his millions.

If it does, perhaps other teams, on occasion, will bit the financial bullet and pay the price to keep a homegrown Future Hall of Famer. Besides, aren’t you like me and are sick and tired of seeing all these guys end up in Pin Stripes or Red Sox red?

Tribe Prediction
As usual, I haven’t paid attention at all to Spring Training. It means absolutely nothing. But this team is not hard to analyze. Nothing much has changed in the past couple years with the positive exception that it has become somewhat more athletic – which is a good thing.

The starting pitching is a huge question mark – therefore, anyone stupid enough to predict close to a .500 record or beter for this team either gets their monthly check for the Dolans, are diehard believers or have no clue.

The starting pitching is a huge question mark, the bullpen is adequate at best and the offense and defense are middle of the pack.

The good news is they have this ridiculously unbalanced schedule where you have most of your games against your division – which, once again, looks to be mediocre at best.

And yes, if Westbrook and Carmona come all the way back, you could rationalize the Tribe being in the hunt comes September. But that’s simply expecting too much.

Here’s a simpler way of deciding how good your team is – do the first versus second division checklist position by position. First division means the player you have is in the top 7 in his league while second division players are just that – they are in the bottom half of the league at their craft.

So let’s start with the Indians infield. Most fans can’t even name their starting catcher by name – second division. Their starting first baseman has a bad back and their #2 choice for that position is basically a rookie – second division. Their young, second baseman has some pop in his bat but is average defensively at best – currently second division. Their shortstop is very good – first division. Their third baseman is average at best at a run production position – second division.

The outfield is a little better with one of the game’s best centerfielders and a very good right fielder – first division. Left field is a huge question mark – second division. Meanwhile, the DH spot is a mess – second division.

And no, I don’t believe Travis Hafner is all the way back like some are predicting, since he’s not even permitted to play catch because of his injury. Here’s hoping my skepticism is inaccurately placed.

The starting pitching is clearly second division unless their #1 & #2 pitch like they did three years ago – and that’s the problem, therefore, second division. The bullpen’s closer is injured and there is no reason to believe this group, as a whole, will hold up over 162 games this summer – second division.

How does 74-88 sound?

Butler – Duke
I haven’t watched much DI basketball this season, but I like who ended up in the finals. Both Duke and Butler do it the right way. And neither team has a future terrific pro on its roster. Yes, both teams have players who might make it in the NBA, but these teams are in the finals because they defend, play well together and have high basketball IQs.

Like most fans, I hope Butler wins, since Duke has been there before and done that, but I don’t have a problem if the Blue Devils earn another title. Unlike, others, I don’t believe Duke represents the dark side. They go to class, stay out of trouble, win basketball games and graduate. What's to dislike?

Hero T.
I have heard several talking heads wonder what happened to Hero T. this season. He has underachieved in Toronto in their minds and currently finds himself in the coach’s doghouse.

The guy was never that good – we made that clear last spring when we stated Mike Brown got this guy paid by having a much shorter defender (Delete West) try to check him in the Magic - Cavs playoff series.

Let’s hope Brown and his coaching staff don't have another horrid series this time around. If he does, he won’t be coaching the Cavs in 2010-11.

Browns
I like the fact the Walrus seems to be inclined to trade draft picks for established NFL players – that’s a good thing based on the percentages. He recently picked up a starting linebacker and a quality NFL corner for a pair of mid to late picks.

Let’s hope he adds a pair of starting receivers by draft day as well. Using those extra third round picks to obtain receivers that can get open and catch the ball would help whoever takes the snaps.

A knowledgeable friend who follows this stuff closely tells me Eric Berry, out of Tennessee, is the guy the Browns should target in round 1.

I have not seen him play enough to comment, but if he’s clearly the best safety in the draft, I have no problem with him going to Cleveland.

Unlike many media types who have some silly formula that says you can’t this position this high or that high, I believe in taking the best player if he stands out in the crowd – regardless of where he plays.

As for the Browns, they have needs everywhere. So if Berry is their guy, be aggressive and go get him.

I am more intrigued with what they do in rounds 2 & 3, where they have some extra picks to play with. They CANNOT blow these picks like Mangini did a year ago when he butchered rounds 2 @ 3. Remember that debacle? Some of those guys were inactive during parts of the 2009 season while others made minimal contributions considering where they were taken and considering they joined such a bad team talent-wise.

Come to think of it, Mangini had Jerome Harrison inactive some last fall as well. Brilliant.

Bottom line – the Browns need playmakers on both sides of the ball. Either draft guys who will make plays or trade for them using your picks. Everything being equal, I prefer getting established NFL players because the margin of error is much smaller. But that’s just little old me.

Someone wrote a local column this weekend emphasizing how the Browns have aged quickly since the Walrus took over. The guys he’s brought in already have some mileage on them.

What did you expect?

He looked at film and saw the same thing we have seen live – the overall talent level stinks and most of the young players on this roster are back-ups at best.

Lore moves to come.

In case you were wondering - here are their weaknesses in order:

Wide receivers – the worst in the NFL
Cornerbacks – until the Brown pick up, among the worst in the NFL
Linebackers – not one impact guy on the roster
Safeties – not one impact player on the roster
Quarterback – Wallace will start the opener over Jake D. if the pre-season competition is truly open
D-line – slightly better than average if Rogers' motor is running
O-line – solid
Running back – if Harrison is 80% of what he did late, they are in good shape there

By the way, I left out pass rushers since the franchise hasn’t had a true, consistent pass rusher since the mid-70s when J. Sherk and W. Johnson were controlling the line of scrimmage in Cleveland.

Remember - a consistent double-digit sack performer coming off the edge would certainly make that secondary better.

That would be my #1 priority in any draft or via trade!

McNabb
I just heard my boy Donovan McNabb went to the Skins. The Skins will be better for it.

What I don’t like is how Philadelphia treated this guy after he played hard, played hurt and played well for them for so many years.

Loyalty works both ways and you can bet other intelligent players around the league notice such moves.

I am a little biased since I loved McNabb coming out of college. However, I would say that about any player who is a real pro for such a long period of time.

It would have been nice to see him play out his career in one city. You simply don’t see much of that anymore. That’s the romantic in me speaking of course. However, I do know the realities of sports better than most.

Good luck to McNabb in Washington.

Baseball Predictions
Unfortunately, if you take the Red Sox or Yankees and give everyone else the field, you have a better than 50-50 chance of being right. And thats' the problem with baseball.

I have no idea who will win. And frankly, I don't care. I just know I'll root for whatever team is still playing in October that got there with the smallest budget.