Sunday, August 31, 2008

GOR, Aug. 31, '08

Browns In 2008
I’ve got them finishing 9-7 – no better, no worse. Why?

Their defense ranked 30th overall in the NFL in 2007. Name me one impact player on that side of the ball heading into '08? Get the point?

Yes, they added a pair of 300 pounders up front in the off-season. The hope is that will help them against the run – especially on first down holding teams to second and 8 instead of second and 5.

But even if they improve against the run – which is likely – I don’t see the Browns defense consistently getting to the quarterback and getting off the field on third down.

They also have NO established, quality NFL corner on the roster. That’s a recipe for disaster – a weak pass rush and kid corners. A quality NFL QB and a good WR should once again be able to play pitch and catch against this team this fall.

Secondly, the Browns won’t be facing nearly as many cupcakes and back-up quarterbacks as they faced last fall. The schedule is more difficult, and since they are the trendy pick this year to be much-improved, no one will take them lightly.

The Browns will be featured on national television several times this fall based on expectations coming off a 10-win ’07 campaign. Their play in pre-season did nothing to indicate this is an improved football team.

Third, the Brownies made it through the 2007 season without suffering key injuries. We haven’t reached Labor Day yet and Cleveland already has run into trouble on the injury front this time around. That's part of the reason the team struggled in August and the odds they can just flick the switch and turn it on come September is wishful thinking.

In order for the Browns to make the playoffs this fall, they will need to outscore teams once again. But that is likely to be a more difficult task in 2008 due to the uncertainty of the special teams heading into week #1.

Josh Cribbs is not healthy. The team relied heavily on him to make plays on special teams last season. He gave the offense tremendous field position in ’07. If he does not repeat that performance this season, the Browns will be weak in two of the three phases of the game – defense and special teams. That will put even more heat on the offense – from farther out.

So let’s recap. The 2008 Browns should win more than they lose. But a lack of talent on defense, a more difficult schedule and the uncertainty of Cribbs’ health heading into September makes them likely to take a small step backwards instead of moving forward.

Ofcourse I've been wrong before - like when I picked the Broncos to reach the Super Bowl last fall.

Glaring Needs Breaking Camp
The Brows clearly still need a cover corner. So I will continue to bang the Ty Law drum until he signs with someone. The team also badly needs another WR (i.e Joe Horn). A legitimate pass rusher would also help a great deal. Those guys are like gold however - very hard to find, especially on the waiver wire.

Super Bowl Picks
I like the Pats beating the Cowboys come next February. The Patriots were clearly the best team in football in ’07. And it wasn’t even close. Unfortunately, they ran into a hot team with a good pass rush in the Super Bowl and came up short.

No one in their right mind would pick a low seed from an inferior conference to take the Pats had it been a five-game series. But football does not work that way. It’s truly one-and-out in the post-season. The Pats found out the hard way.

Therefore, I’ll go with the team that played the best from beginning to nearly the end last fall. This isn’t college. New England didn’t lose any letter winners to graduation. Brady and company are still present and accounted for. Yes, their defense is aging, but I see atleast one more run in that group.

As for picking the Cowboys, that’s just a guess. They seem solid on both sides of the ball, and if Romo is as good as the media makes him out to be, he has enough talent around him to advance out of that conference.

Pats 30
Cowboys 20

Sunday, August 24, 2008

GOR/Aug 24, '08

Browns' O-Line Woes
After three pre-season games, the most disturbing aspect of Browns' camp isn't the injury list - all the key characters are expected to be healthy when the bell rings in September. The most distressing aspect of camp has been the horrid play of the first unit offensive line.

In the last two weeks, Derek Anderson suffered a concussion against the Giants following a blind-side hit, and Brady Quinn was hit early and often by the Lions.

The Browns can't excuse this to injuries. The line is healthy. It's just not performing well. Check that - it's performing poorly.

Coach Crennel needs to light a fire under what was the strongest unit on the team just one year ago. Otherwise, it will be a long season. Remember, in 2007, DA rarely got his jersey dirty because of the OL.

Defense
There does not seem to be any improvement on defense so far this camp. There has been no pass rush and the secondary has been torched by just about everyone who has been under center against them in the first three pre-season games. And I haven't even mentioned the linebackers - who don't scare anyone.

Needs
The Browns are still a work in progress but it's clear the team needs another quality receiver and a legitimate cover corner (I keep repeating myself with the CB needs, I know). We begged them to sign Ty Law weeks ago. I cannot imagine them opening the season with this secondary and expect to be successful getting off the field on third down - especially when you combine the talent level in the secondary with the lack of pass rush up front. That's a nasty stew waiting to happen.

As for the receiving group - when Edwards is out, the team lacks a true #1 wideout and the ability to get YAC yards (yards after the catch). It was ugly watching the Browns' wide receivers try to get separation against the Lions' secondary this past Thursday. Either the Lions have an oustanding secondary or the Browns' WRs are clearly less than average by NFL standards with Braylon and Joe J. out.

Good News & pre-season week #4
The good news is these games don't count -whether you are 0-4 or 4-0. The final pre-season game takes on added meaning however. With so many starters out in pre-season game #3, the coaching staff may want to play the starters at least one half in the final tune-up to get everyone on the same page. Most teams take their starters out early in pre-season game #4 to avoid injuries. Cleveland may not be able to afford that luxury since their #1s - especially on offense - have not played much or well to date.

Cliff Lee
CLiff Lee is quietly having the best season I have ever witnessed from an Indians' starter.

I go back to the early 70s and Gaylord Perry - so we are talking nearly 40 years. He's 18-2 and has an ERA in the 2s on a bad club. Imagine where they would be without him - perhaps looking at a 100 loss campaign. Lee isn't overpowering hitters - even though his strikeouts are up. He's throwing a ton of first pitch strikes, then challenging hitters with his best stuff. It's a simple formula but one that works - get ahead then trust your stuff!

Jensen Lewis.

He's 5-for-5 as a closer. If he finishes strong, it may give the Indians' deep thinkers second thoughts about acquiring a veteran closer in the off-season. I would still pursue a true closer - depending on the asking price of course.

Redeem Team
Good for them - they won the gold. The best news for Cavs' fans is that 23 did not get hurt. Several media members covering the Olympics got to see James up close and personal the past few weeks. Most came to the conclusion that 23 established himself as the best player on the planet. We already knew as much.

Obama & McCain
Joe Biden is a solid VP choice for B. Obama. He brings to the ticket what Obama lacks - foreign policy credentials and 30+ years of Wshington D.C. experience. However, there clearly was a better choice if Team Obama wanted its best chance of winning - choosing Hillary Clinton to be VP. Althought she carries a ton of baggage and then some (Bill Clinton), she would have energized and united the democratic party. Biden was probably the best of the next best choices but it might not be enough.

This gives John McCain a clear opening to get a good percentage of Hillary's 18 million voters. Polls consistently show that as many as 20% may either not vote or vote for McCain - that's between 3-4 million voters. That's a lot of voters folks, and it could be the difference in a close race.

McCain should pick a strong women to run with him - remember Condi Rice was our first choice for McCain months ago. We see no reason to change that view. If he does not want Rice because she's from Bush's team, then KB Hutchinson out of Texas woud be a good fit.

For those of you who have no idea who I am talking about - relax. She's more than qualified and would be solid in a debate versus Biden - who loves to hear himself speak.

The point is there are clearly several qualified female republicans who would bring with them the group republicans have trouble getting on election day - women. Older women (40+) especially are there for the taking this time around. McCain needs to be bold (think out of the box) and go with a qualified female to attract disgruntled Hillary voters.

In the end, it's true - people vote for the presidential candidate, not the running mate. However, such a unique pick by McCain would indicate he is willing to roll the dice. And who doesn't like a gambler?

No, we don't like Mitt Romney - the odds-on favorite to be his VP pick. He and Romney dislike each other. Trying to sell him as your #2 after you spent the better part of the primary knifing each other will not sell with the voting public. Plus, Romney's hair is too perfect. I always worry about model-looking types with perfect hair. Although qualified, Romney looks too much like someone you would see inside an LL Bean catalog.

Finally, we don't believe Obama giving his acceptance speech in a large stadium front of 75,000 people is a bit too much. Americans are not electing a rock star. They are electing a president. His speech in front of 200,000 people in Germany did not go over well in the U.S. The acceptance speech site is also a risk. For example, what happens if it rains?

Till next time.

Friday, August 15, 2008

GOR/8-15-08

Maurice Williams
The Cavaliers have not had a point guard average 17 points a game since Mark Price did it some 15 years ago. The addition of Maurice Williams is clearly an upgrade over anything the Cavaliers have had at that position since Andre Miller – Jim Paxson’s best draft choice during his less than illustrious run as Cavs’ GM.

What people are missing is the fact that Williams’ ability and tendency to think shoot first and pass second as a point guard is just what the team needs – not something to be afraid of like some local fans and media types are already groaning about.

They have it backwards – as usual.

Any player that can score on his own without 23s help is a big addition to this roster. The Cavaliers do not need any more complementary players. They need a couple players who can “get theirs” without help. That will allow James to take a few offensive possessions off from time to time. This is a luxury he did not have last year, or the year before, etc.

Remember, early in James' career with the Cavaliers, he had Z who could still be counted on to get some easy post possession baskets. With each passing season however, Z has floated more and more away from the basket – needing James’ pick and roll game or 23’s penetration and kick to get the bulk of his points now.

For those who are still worried Williams will hog the ball - Relax.

Come the fourth quarter, James will be in charge and Williams will take a back seat when necessary. Overall however, having a player who can take some pressure off James on some occasional offensive possessions will allow 23 to stay stronger longer.

Remember - you want to reduce his (23s) workload as much as possible during the 82-game regular season grind.

Understand this – I have only seen Williams play a handful of times and have not made a complete judgment on his abilities – at either end of the floor. But facts don't lie - his numbers have improved each of the past three seasons and he led all Eastern Conference point guards in points per game in 2007-08 while shooting 48% from the field. That’s impressive.

I will be focusing on two things when he takes the floor for the Cavs this fall – his basketball IQ and his ability to defend penetration.

Yes, I now he played in Milwaukee last season – where they were out of it early and played very little defense, either as individuals or as a team. But 17 points and six assists from a 25-year old point guard is nothing to sneeze at. Besides, he’ll be playing next to 23 in 2008-09. That should help his game even more.

Good move Danny.

Obviously, this move was also made because the Cavaliers felt they could trade Joe Smith and not lose much off the bench. Remember, Smith is a pro’s pro who has a high basketball IQ, and who at this point in his career, is a solid role player off the bench – something he provided for the Cavaliers during his short stay in Cleveland last season.

JJ Hickson’s summer league performance most likely convinced the Cavaliers’ front office the rookie first round pick would be ready for some minutes off the bench this fall in the front court– thus making Smith expendable.

I hope they are right. I am looking forward to seeing the youngster play along with watching Williams fit in.

Indians Fire Sale
As we predicted in an early summer posting, CC, Casey Blake and Paul Bird were all likely to leave town prior to the end of the season. Obviously, it’s impossible to judge the deals because prospects take time to develop. We are glad however the team kept shortstop J. Peralta and did not listen to some of the media and fans who wanted Peralta banished.

This is becoming a yearly request with Peralta bashers. It's ass though it's his fault when things go south for the Tribe. Morons.

No, he's not Cal Ripken. However, there is nothing wrong with a POST STEROIDS ERA middle infielder who hits 20+ home runs, drives in 70-80 runs and hits .270 on a regular basis. No, Peralta is not a good defensive shortstop. We were the first to call for Cabrera to move to SS a year ago. However, a consistent middle of the infield power bat is hard to find these days.

Peralta lacks certain non-verbals that lead local fans and scribes to judge him as being lackadaisical. No, he doesn’t do back flips like Ozzie Smith when running out to his position, nor does he always have a smile on his face like Omar did. But don’t mistake that for lack of talent.

Consistency should NEVER be taken for granted. Managers and head coaches know this better than anyone. Bat him sixth or seventh in your line-up and give him 600 at bats and hell put up solid numbers - year in year out. That is, unless you can do better there. Right now, I don't see anyone better on the horizon.

Think about it, the Indians don’t have a clue who will be starting a first base in 2009, nor who will be at third base in next season, or if Cabrera’s sophomore slump at the plate was a one-year occurrence or a sign of things to come. Why unload, or unload on, the one infielder who has given you good numbers every year but one - 2006?

Kelly Shoppach
Last year, we suggested the Indians sign Kelly Shoppach to a long-term deal and give him more playing time behind the plate while moving Victor Martinez around between catching, playing first and the DH role.

After watching Shoppach on an everyday basis since Martinez went down in 2008, it is clear to this observer we were right in our early appraisal that Shoppach could be a solid everyday receiver. No, he won’t ever come close to hitting .300 like Victor, but he has 20+ home run and 80+ RBI potential while having very good defensive skills. There are only a handful of big league catchers out there today who are better than Shoppach behind the dish and can produce better power numbers.

When he returns, I would like to see Martinez play the bulk of the time at first base while Shoppach handles the work behind the plate. Call it an audition for next year. If the Indians can get his pre-2008 offensive numbers from Martinez at first base and Shoppach can keep producing at the plate, the team is stronger for it.

Brett Favre
You all know where I stood on the Brett Favre – Packers melodrama. It seems Vegas agreed with me. I’m told the Jets’ chances of winning the Super Bowl this season improved dramatically with the Favre acquisition while the Packers odds went down. Geez, that’s a surprise.

Michael Phelps
I was asked to comment on Michael Phelps in terms of where swimming rates comparing it to other sports. Understand this – I just learned to swim last summer so I REALLY have no idea what he does and how he does it.

I will say this however. I have tuned in to watch his races and marveled at his dominance. It’s not like he’s competing against the best swimmers in the county, state or country. The guy is going up against the world and taking names every time out.

As to where swimming is in terms of sport – here’s my list and accompanying explanations. Please do not take offense if you play one of these sports that I rate near or at the bottom of the pack. Remember – it’s just one man’s opinion.

Let’s first give you my general parameters.

SPORTS DEFINITION: If you can do it well while drinking heavily - it’s not a sport. If you don’t sweat while doing it – it’s not a sport. If you don’t move at all – it’s not a sport. And finally, if you can dominate while approaching 50 (without performance-enhancing drugs), it’s not a sport.

With that – we are off and running.

1. Basketball – I believe basketball players are the best athletes in the world. As a group, they possess great physical stamina, outstanding hand-eye coordination, quickness, strength, balance, etc…They’ve got the whole package. It’s not hard to imagine NBA players playing other sports and playing them at a high level (i.e. Antonio Gates).

2. Football – The average NFL defensive back ranks right up there with basketball players in my book. Wide receivers are a close second. As a group, they obviously possess better hand-eye coordination than defensive backs but lack the toughness their counterparts possess. There are exceptions of course.

3. Baseball - Yes, I know. Some pitchers look like they are having a heart attack running from first to third. On the whole however, most baseball players were very good all-around athletes growing up – especially those in the middle of the diamond.

4. Decathlon Athletes – These guys aren’t just running in circles. They have to be able to do it all.

5. Soccer – Yes, it’s the world’s sport. Being originally from Europe, I enjoy, understand and appreciate a 1-0 soccer game between two outstanding international teams. This observer watched the World Cup from start to finish recently. Now, here’s the bad news for soccer – it’s a very soft sport culturally. Guys go down like they have been shot with an UZI to get fouls called. I can’t place the sport any higher on the list just because of what I call its “natural softness.” Could you imagine Ronnie Lott faking an injury? Enough said.

6. Hockey – These guys are much tougher than soccer players. However, we have them below soccer just because soccer is the world’s game. So out of respect – we place “football” first and hockey second.

7. Rugby - If we were judging on toughness alone, we would place rugby at or near the top. We have rugby seventh – just ahead of boxing. These guys constantly crash into each other without any protective gear on. That’s sick. They also have to be able to run and use their feet as well. I loved watching Australian Rules Football back in the early 80s during ESPN’s infancy. That’s probably why I rate it above other more recognized sports.

8. Boxing – These guys are built, in great physical shape and I would probably want one of them with me – over any other type of athlete – if I were walking down a dark alley at night. However, I place boxers eighth because I can’t think of two many boxers who would be studs elsewhere – with the exception of my favorite recent college football player, now turned pro - (ZIBBY out of ND).

9. Sprinters – Great quickness, speed and body development. One-dimensional
or they would be higher.

10. Wrestling – These guys work their ass off and get very little attention. It’s somewhat of a specialized sport. You don’t see wrestlers elsewhere often except on on the offensive and defensive lines. I have tremendous respect for the work put in, but I can’t go any higher than #9.

Swimming – The BEST sport available in terms of getting in shape. However, it doesn’t crack the top-10. Much like wrestling, it’s another specialized sport where you do not see a lot of cross-over in terms of the athlete potentially playing other sports at a high level.

I’ll stop at top-10. From here on out, it gets rough.

For example, I can’t rate golfers or tennis players because I do not recognize any sport where the audience MUST remain silent. That just goes against everything that sports is all about. If you put a gun to my head and made me choose, I would put tennis above golf. I’m sorry. I can’t get over the fact that in golf the athlete STANDS STILL when he performs.

I realize it may be harder to get a PGA card than hit a ML fastball, but I keep thinking about John Daly being liquored up and being competitive in his sport. I can’t imagine someone drinking a fifth of Jack Daniels and hitting a 90+ mile per hour fastball from a ML pitcher, or nailing a 20-foot jumper over a 6-6 NBA player, or catching a pass 30 yards downfield with a 220 pound safety coming at you.

La Crosse – Rich kid sport.

Car Racing – Great hand-eye coordination needed along with lots of guts and a special type of stamina, but you AIN’T moving. Sorry.

Horse Racing – This one is simple. If there’s an animal in tow, it AIN’T no sport! That also eliminates dog-fighting. Sorry Michael.

Bowling – Already covered above in terms of drinking and being effective. Add smoking a pack of camels and you have bowling.

Distance Running – Please.

I know I have probably forgotten one or two legitimate sports. However, I did not want to drag this on forever. Therefore, I left out pool, darts, dwarf tossing, etc… You get the point.

Again, don’t be mad if you were the best frisbee player in your high school and I didn’t even give it a mention.