Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Randon Thoughts, 4-30-'08

Draft Review
Yes, I watched some of the NFL draft this past weekend. The fact they sped up the process kept me semi-interested. Some observations follow.

I would not take an offensive lineman with the first pick in the draft. He has to have an Anthony Munoz type career to be worth it in my book. I know, I know - the left tackle protects the quarterback’s blind side and is crucial in the running game. Still, I would take a guy who makes plays with the football, makes a ton of tackles or sacks the signal-caller on third down with that high a pick. That’s just my prerogative.

The Steelers continue to show why they have had the best player personnel department in the NFL for years. If you look at their 2008 draft, they got quality where they were sitting, filled needs and didn’t reach for players.

It’s amazing to see the Titans continue to hang their young quarterback (Vince Young) out to dry by not drafting a receiver early, or trading to acquire a disgruntled, Pro Bowl NFL receiver (see Johnson, Bolden, etc.).

No, I don’t see what all the “experts” see in Matt Ryan. Granted, I haven’t seen that much of him – I don’t sit in my parents’ basement and watch film in-between Star Trek episodes. However, I have seen enough to disagree with the Falcons making him the third pick overall. I surmise part of the reason the pick was made was to turn the page on the Vick Era in Georgia. That’s not why you go QB with that choice. I would have taken the big dude from LSU (Glenn Dorsey) to plug the interior.

The Browns had a solid draft without making any choices in day one based on filling two of their three D-line positions with quality veterans through trades. If their run defense improves dramatically this fall, one could argue the Browns had a great draft.

Again, in most cases, I would rather have a proven NFL talent than a 22 year old fresh out of college with "potential." I guess I am a George Allen disciple.

Cavaliers In Control
I am happy to note the Cavaliers are making me look bad by being up 3-1 with a chance to close it out at home tonight against the mouthy Bullets - yes the Bullets. I picked Washington to advance, as you know, based mainly on how the Cavaliers were playing heading into the post-season. I am not a homer – meaning I make choices based on what I see, not what I feel. Regardless, I will be very happy to be wrong on this one. Here’s hoping the Cavaliers have a killer’s instinct and close it out in five this evening.

Why are they ahead? – simple, LJ is playing well, as expected, he is getting enough help from his friends, the Wizards don’t defend and have had a difficult time finding the right chemistry with Arenas returning to the line-up.

KISS
You have heard me numerous times talk about “keeping it simple stupid” when it comes to sports. There is no better example of this than watching an NBA playoff game. Notice what many teams run offensively in crunch time over and over again – the simple, old-fashioned pick and roll.

The Natural
I have said it before, but it is worth repeating - Victor Martinez has a great approach at the plate. He is never off balance and rarely has a bad at bat. When I watch the Tribe, I make sure to catch his at bats. Every young hitter should study this guy’s approach.

Travis
We have reached May and Travis Hafner is still not hitting. This team simply cannot afford another sub par year from him and expect to reach the post-season. That’s asking too much from this pitching staff to match last year’s efforts. He needs to turn it around very soon or the fans and media will turn on him soon - making for a potentially ugly summer for Hafner.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Cavs Up 2-0 & Primary In PA

Cavaliers Hold Serve

So far, after two games of the opening 2008 playoff series, the Cavaliers have been able to disprove the adage that you can’t “turn it on and off.” Or perhaps Washington hasn’t shown up yet. We will know more by the end of the week. Remember, the series doesn’t really start until BOTH teams play at home.

It was good to see Wally and Gibson knock down shots in game #2 however. That’s a good sign. Then again, as we have said many times, role players tend to play a lot better at home. If James gets that kind of help in DC, the Cavaliers will most certainly steal one on the road this week.

It is a very simple game when watching the Cavaliers play – James will get his and get his teammates wide open looks time and time again. When they defend as a unit and make some open shots, the Cavaliers win, when they don’t, James has to done the cape and try to win it all by himself – which occasionally happens (see Cavs-Pistons, game #5, 2007).

Gilbert
Arenas doesn’t look close to 100%. Even in game #1 when he went off, the large majority of his points came on jumpers. He isn’t changing directions or exploding to the basket yet. That likely won’t come until next fall. Plus, with him (Arenas)in the line-up, there's a lot of standing around and watching for the other Wizards (aka: Cavs & 23). It doesn't seem the Wizards have adjusted to Arenas being back yet. When he's making shots, that's great, when he's not, that's bad. Chemistry is a funny thing.

Hard Fouls
Back when, you could almost commit assault and battery and the referees would not call a flagrant foul come playoff time. Then “Michael” started winning titles and the league realized they had to keep him upright and on the floor or the playoff ratings would suffer severely. The league can't have any of that.

We expect the same to take place for 23. The difference is, being a "freak of nature” he (LJ) is a lot stronger than the original 23 and can absorb more punishment based on his frame. Regardless, I expect LJ to spend a lot of time at the line in this series – especially at home. It would be nice if he made most of them. His poor free throw shooting performance in game #2 was overshadowed by the 30point win. That could hurt down the road (see Memphis).

Margin Insignificant
A reminder - you don't get any bonus points for margin of victory.

More Joe
By the way, we would like to see more of Joe Smith on the floor. As we said when the trade took place - Smith is a pro's pro. He does everything relatively well and should be a real asset, especially at this time of year. He gives you one thing most Cavs don't - consistent play.

PA Primary

It is shameful watching some political pundits on the cable networks (MSNBC especially) openly root for Barack Obama in PA. We expect they will be disappointed and upset after Clinton hammers him today. We like Hillary to pound him by double-figures – contrary to many wishful predictions that Obama has closed the gap and it will be close.

Another solid Clinton win today in a must-state for the democrats in the fall will bolster the Clinton argument that he is “unelectable” in the fall. The democrats realistically need to win two of the following three state to win the election in November – Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania. At this point, he (Obama) looks as though he could lose all three to John McCain. That’s her campaign’s main argument – and it holds water.

Here is the other factor no one is raising because it has racial overtones – Obama’s electoral and total vote lead over Clinton in the primaries has been forged by beating her soundly in the south, where a heavy African-American voting block exists and has carried him to victory.

In the general election, ALL the southern states in recent history have gone republican. Where race helps him in the south in the primary, it hurts him in the south in the general election. That’s just an unfortunate fact.

That begs the question - where will his votes come from come November?

The answer – from the multitudes of young people who are turning out for the first time, from African-American (who vote 90% democratic anyway), and from wealthy white liberals (there aren’t enough of them to make a significant difference in the general election).

The Clintons will likely be proven right in the fall. Meanwhile, it has to be discouraging for Hillary and Bill, who see what’s ahead but won’t be able to mathematically overtake him in the primaries.

Remember for those of you who are political novices (don't follow this stuff like I do), everything is aligned for a democratic win this fall. The war is unpopular, the economy is in trouble (sub-prime mortgage debacle), gas is closing in on $4 a gallon and democrats are energized and turning out in record numbers at the polls.

The democratic candidate SHOULD win in a LANDSLIDE.

However, the primary knock-down drag-out between Clinton and Obama has damaged both of them severely, and the fact that both candidates are battered & flawed should make it very competitive in November.

We still like McCain to win, but the wild card will be the number of new (young) voters Obama actually turns out. That is the one factor that gives him a fighting chance – even with all the baggage going in. Traditionally, young people disappoint democrats and don’t show up in large numbers at the polls. Obama is charismatic. He will turn out record numbers of African-Americans (13% of the overall population of the U.S.).

Can he also turn out enough young people (new voters) to beat McCain?

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Hits & Misses Pre-NBA Playoffs

NBA Playoffs
Before the season started, we had the Celtics and Spurs meeting in the Finals with the Spurs winning the title. We see no reason to change that prediction.

Detroit seems like the only team capable of coming out of the East besides the revamped Celtics, but we like Garnett and company to edge the Pistons in the conference finals. One can make a viable argument for all eight teams possibly coming out of the West, however, if healthy, we still like the experience of the defending champs.

As for the Cavaliers, my heart says 23 will carry them to the second round, but my head says the Wizards will take this series. All the variables point to a Cavalier first round exit – James is not 100%, they aren’t guarding anyone, the team has not meshed since the trade, once again no one can realistically be depended on every night to play well besides James, the Wizards have payback on their mind, and finally, after James, the next three best players in the series all wear Washington uniforms (Arenas, Jamison, Butler). A reminder - I have been wrong before.

I know, I know. I’m the same guy who said a few months ago James would take his team deeper into the '08 playoffs than Kobe. I am still not sold on the Lakers, but I have seen enough of the Cavaliers to think they just don’t have what it takes to make a deep playoff run in ‘08. On this one, I have to go with Spygate's mastermind, who infamously said when coaching the Browns in the early/mid 90s – “I can only go by what I see.”

You Never Know
If I told you the Tribe would have a starter sitting at 3-0 in mid-April, you would have rattled off several potential names and never mentioned Cliff Lee. I saw Lee pitch for the first time last night in the win over the Twins. He’s throwing more fastballs, throwing strikes and just as important, throwing inside. That’s something CC should be doing and hasn't this spring. If you don’t establish the inside part of the plate, hitters at this level will make you pay even if you have great stuff. When CC starts brushing people back and occasionally hitting a few batters, the quality starts will return as well.

NFL Draft
There they go again. I was flipping channels yesterday and happened to catch one of many upcoming NFL draft specials on ESPN. Several of the talking heads referred to Boston College’s quarterback (Ryan) as a “franchise” player. One even compared his skill-set to P. Manning and T. Brady. NICE!!!

This dialogue reminded me of why I don’t like such programs. One of my sports 10 commandments states - “Never use the term “franchise player" when describing someone who hasn’t achieved anything. Such status should be reserved for those who have achieved such status (i.e. Hall of Fame caliber).

For example, as you are aware, I am a huge Brady Q. fan and believe he will be one of the league’s five best signal-callers within two to three years of starting. Yet, I have never referred to him as a “franchise quarterback.” First, I may be wrong, and second, that term denigrates those who have already earned the label.

For those who care (DB), the little I saw of DI football this year, I came away with the impression that there isn’t one QB I would take with a top-10 pick in this draft. That's right - no "franchise" QBs in this group.

Annoying Reminder
Yes, I still want Barry Bonds in the middle of the Tribe line-up and Pac Man covering the Browns opponents' #1 receiving threat this fall. Both are STILL available and would come cheap. At this point, Pac Man carries more baggage than Bonds, who has had his legal issues with the Feds pushed back. It's a business, remember?

Think about it, who would you rather get with a fourth round pick next week - some defensive tackle from Fresno State you never heard of, or a true, quality cover corner not seen in Cleveland since Dixon/Minnifield? Secondly, where else can you get a HOF middle-of-the-order bat immediately?

Coming soon - the 10 commandments.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Mid-April Random Thoughts

I simply did not have anything of note to say last week.

Cavs Limping Into Post-Season
I just watched the Cavaliers struggle to earn a home win over the lowly & injury-riddled Miami Heat, bringing their magic number to one in an attempt to clinch home-court in round #1 of the playoffs.

The way they have played down the stretch, it won’t matter where the Cavaliers play that final game. It won't get that far. The Cavaliers look slow defensively and out of sync offensively. We know they have had injuries, but excuses will get you one and done in the post-season.

The good news is their potential first round opponent, the Washington Wizards, have been busy trash-talking and requesting another post-season date with Cleveland. The Cavaliers have remained above it all – probably because they have been too busy struggling to get it together since the 11-player deal back in February.

Perhaps the Wizards will do with their collective mouth, what Head Coach Mike Brown and his staff have been unable to do with practices and game-day clipboards – motivate the Cavaliers to play well at both ends for an extended stretch of time.

Last year, the Cavaliers were the beneficiary of a soft post-season schedule and a coaching gaffe for the ages - (see Flip Saunders) allowing LJ to score 29 of his team’s final 30 points in pivotal game #5 versus the Pistons.

This time around, the Cavaliers limp into the playoffs unsure of even who to play, when and how much. While other playoff teams have spent the past few weeks shrinking down their rotation for post-season, the Cavaliers have yet to find one that works.

Last spring, Andy V. and Boobie Gibson played well throughout the playoffs. LJ will need their help and much more if we can expect to see pro basketball in northeast Ohio well into May.

Questions abound for the locals:

Will Ben’s back hold up so he can do what he was brought to town to do – defend the post in the playoffs?

Does Wally have anything left in the tank?

Can anyone in the backcourt PLEASE stop guard penetration?

Has anyone seen Shasha this year?

And there are more problems on the horizon. This year, the competition is stronger (i.e. Boston) and some of the teams in the way have a score to settle with the Cavaliers (see Wizards & Pistons).

With two games remaining in the regular season, it doesn’t look good for the locals. However, don’t forget – they do have 23. If healthy, he will get his and consistently get his teammates open looks in the playoffs. And if they can stay close late, he will close more often than not.

LJ just might have to average a triple-double in the playoffs for the Cavaliers to advance.

That's okay, he's used to having a load on his back this time of year. Why do you think it hurts so much?


So Much For Spring Training Numbers
Much was made of the Tribe’s rotation success in spring training. Everyone go their work in and dominated in the process. A lot of good that did!

The Indians have gotten out of the gate slowly – to put it kindly. It’s early, so there is no reason to panic. The beauty of baseball is in its “marathon” nature. Over the course of 162 games, talent reaches its expected level. That should be the case with the Tribe.

The start isn’t pretty, but it could be worse. You could be a Tigers’ fan right now looking at that $130+ million payroll that is suspect in pitching and scratching your head.


Third Time Is the Charm
MLB and the players' union have agreed on another drug testing policy. I think this is the third try in the past two years. Let me get this right – the new deal includes amnesty for past violators (see Mitchell Report), no outside agency placed in charge of the testing as was recommended, no revealing when someone flunks a test unless it reaches the suspension stage and no human growth hormone testing. Nice!!! Somehow, I doubt Congress, or anyone else will buy it.

Browns & Corners
I strongly suggest the Cleveland Browns acquire a quality cornerback or two before September rolls around. They traded their best cover corner (LB) and another one (Wright) is in trouble with the MAN (aka police). That’s never good.

As of now, the Browns seem to be better prepared to stop your first and 10 carry off tackle than cover WRs on third and five.

Memphis vs. Kansas
I know what coach Calipari was trying to do by stating over and over again that free throw shooting wasn’t that important. He was playing amateur psychologist – letting his kids think the coach isn’t worried about it, so they (players) should not be.

It didn’t work out too well however.

Memphis blew a nine point lead with just over two minutes MAINLY BECAUSE they missed four of five charity tosses down the stretch. It isn’t any more complicated than that.

It wasn’t because their post player fouled out. It wasn’t because Memphis had to play its starters huge minutes which led to fatigue in OT. It wasn’t because a great shot sent it to overtime. And it wasn’t because Kansas earned it by making all the plays.

As Calipari put it, “a perfect storm” happened that kept the Tigers from winning the title. His thesis was that everything that had to go wrong for his team to lose did go wrong.

I don’t buy it.

They (Memphis) shot 20% from the line in crunch time. That opened the door and Kansas walked through it. I felt badly for the Memphis kids who didn't knock down the charity tosses late. Those misses will be hard to forget.


The lesson - with all the great athleticism in basketball today at all levels, it still boils down to fundamentals – including making a standstill 15 footer with no one in the way.

Next time you watch a college or pro lay-up drill that turns into a dunk fest in pre-game, think about Memphis and how the time would be better spent knocking down those free-bees from 15 feet.

Funny thing is, we hear over and over again how players today are so "selfish."

Yet, a wise man once said "the only time a basketball player can be totally selfish is when he's at the line."

Irony can be cruel.