Cavs Up 2-0 & Primary In PA

Cavaliers Hold Serve

So far, after two games of the opening 2008 playoff series, the Cavaliers have been able to disprove the adage that you can’t “turn it on and off.” Or perhaps Washington hasn’t shown up yet. We will know more by the end of the week. Remember, the series doesn’t really start until BOTH teams play at home.

It was good to see Wally and Gibson knock down shots in game #2 however. That’s a good sign. Then again, as we have said many times, role players tend to play a lot better at home. If James gets that kind of help in DC, the Cavaliers will most certainly steal one on the road this week.

It is a very simple game when watching the Cavaliers play – James will get his and get his teammates wide open looks time and time again. When they defend as a unit and make some open shots, the Cavaliers win, when they don’t, James has to done the cape and try to win it all by himself – which occasionally happens (see Cavs-Pistons, game #5, 2007).

Gilbert
Arenas doesn’t look close to 100%. Even in game #1 when he went off, the large majority of his points came on jumpers. He isn’t changing directions or exploding to the basket yet. That likely won’t come until next fall. Plus, with him (Arenas)in the line-up, there's a lot of standing around and watching for the other Wizards (aka: Cavs & 23). It doesn't seem the Wizards have adjusted to Arenas being back yet. When he's making shots, that's great, when he's not, that's bad. Chemistry is a funny thing.

Hard Fouls
Back when, you could almost commit assault and battery and the referees would not call a flagrant foul come playoff time. Then “Michael” started winning titles and the league realized they had to keep him upright and on the floor or the playoff ratings would suffer severely. The league can't have any of that.

We expect the same to take place for 23. The difference is, being a "freak of nature” he (LJ) is a lot stronger than the original 23 and can absorb more punishment based on his frame. Regardless, I expect LJ to spend a lot of time at the line in this series – especially at home. It would be nice if he made most of them. His poor free throw shooting performance in game #2 was overshadowed by the 30point win. That could hurt down the road (see Memphis).

Margin Insignificant
A reminder - you don't get any bonus points for margin of victory.

More Joe
By the way, we would like to see more of Joe Smith on the floor. As we said when the trade took place - Smith is a pro's pro. He does everything relatively well and should be a real asset, especially at this time of year. He gives you one thing most Cavs don't - consistent play.

PA Primary

It is shameful watching some political pundits on the cable networks (MSNBC especially) openly root for Barack Obama in PA. We expect they will be disappointed and upset after Clinton hammers him today. We like Hillary to pound him by double-figures – contrary to many wishful predictions that Obama has closed the gap and it will be close.

Another solid Clinton win today in a must-state for the democrats in the fall will bolster the Clinton argument that he is “unelectable” in the fall. The democrats realistically need to win two of the following three state to win the election in November – Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania. At this point, he (Obama) looks as though he could lose all three to John McCain. That’s her campaign’s main argument – and it holds water.

Here is the other factor no one is raising because it has racial overtones – Obama’s electoral and total vote lead over Clinton in the primaries has been forged by beating her soundly in the south, where a heavy African-American voting block exists and has carried him to victory.

In the general election, ALL the southern states in recent history have gone republican. Where race helps him in the south in the primary, it hurts him in the south in the general election. That’s just an unfortunate fact.

That begs the question - where will his votes come from come November?

The answer – from the multitudes of young people who are turning out for the first time, from African-American (who vote 90% democratic anyway), and from wealthy white liberals (there aren’t enough of them to make a significant difference in the general election).

The Clintons will likely be proven right in the fall. Meanwhile, it has to be discouraging for Hillary and Bill, who see what’s ahead but won’t be able to mathematically overtake him in the primaries.

Remember for those of you who are political novices (don't follow this stuff like I do), everything is aligned for a democratic win this fall. The war is unpopular, the economy is in trouble (sub-prime mortgage debacle), gas is closing in on $4 a gallon and democrats are energized and turning out in record numbers at the polls.

The democratic candidate SHOULD win in a LANDSLIDE.

However, the primary knock-down drag-out between Clinton and Obama has damaged both of them severely, and the fact that both candidates are battered & flawed should make it very competitive in November.

We still like McCain to win, but the wild card will be the number of new (young) voters Obama actually turns out. That is the one factor that gives him a fighting chance – even with all the baggage going in. Traditionally, young people disappoint democrats and don’t show up in large numbers at the polls. Obama is charismatic. He will turn out record numbers of African-Americans (13% of the overall population of the U.S.).

Can he also turn out enough young people (new voters) to beat McCain?