Monday, March 23, 2009

Cleveland Indians (2009)

Here is my early take on the Tribe this season.

They have a number of average players in their day-in-day-out line-up and several huge question marks on the pitching staff heading into 2009.

Let's go position by position.

The catching is strong with Kelly Shoppach behind the dish and Victor Martinez behind him. That’s right – behind him.

Shoppach is a good receiver, can handle a staff and he hits for power. After the 2008 season he had, he deserves 500 at bats in 2009.

Victor Martinez should get the bulk of the work at first base. The Indians need his bat to come back to life following last year’s injury-plagued season – 20 home runs, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average from him are a must if the Tribe expects to contend this summer.

Estrubal Cabrera is very good defensively at second base, but he needs to hit .280 with some decent power numbers and 20+ stolen bases to be considered a first division player at his position.

Jhonny Peralta is who we’ve always said he is – a run producing shortstop with average range at best.

When he stays off the breaking balls down and away, he is a middle of the order hitter. When he doesn’t, he’s a liability at shortstop, because during those droughts, he doesn’t hit well enough to offset his lack of range.

I'm curious why they haven't placed DeRosa at 2B, Cabrera at SS and Peralta at 3B to open the season. Defensively, that seems to make more sense - especially based on reports that DeRosa can play 2B relatively well.

We'll assume it's still about not hurting anyone's (Peralta's) feelings.

We have never seen Mark DeRosa play, therefore, we have no comment for now and hope he gives them 20 home runs and a minimum of 80 RBI at third base.

Franklin Gutierrez, who we considered an outstanding fourth outfielder because of his ability to play all three outfield positions well, is gone. That’s unfortunate. We liked his talent level more than Ben Francisco – who the Tribe is going to play in left field again this season.

At this time, there is also nothing special about Shin-Soo Choo and Davis Delluci – players who appear to be competing for the team’s corner outfield at bats once again in 2009.

Basically, nothing has changed from a year ago as far as the outfield is concerned. That’s not good. These guys simply don’t scare opposing pitchers.

It looks as though these corner outfield spots are being rented until one or more of the team’s “top prospects” are ready to play at this level. Again, until we get to see these guys play for a while, we have no comment on the “prospects.”

Centerfield is manned by one of the game’s best players – Grady Sizemore.

We still think he’s capable of hitting for a much higher batting average if he cut down his swing, especially with two strikes, but when your other outfielders are who they are, I’ll cut him some slack for trying to be a run producer at the plate instead of a table setter.

We’ve discussed Travis Hafner’s situation at nauseam in the past.

We’ll keep it simple – he needs to hit .280 or better and give them a minimum of 25 home runs and 90 RBI to be a middle of the pack American League DH. Anything less would mean he is doing more damage than good as a middle of the order hitter – especially for what he earns.

This brings me to the batting order based on what the roster will look like. Here is how I would open the season.
(CF)Sizemore
(2B)DeRosa
(1B)Martinez
(C)Shoppach
(DH) Hafner
(SS) Peralta
(RF) Choo
(2B) Cabrera
(LF) Francisco

As for Ryan Garko, we still see him as another player with a limited upside. Simply - we have Shoppach taking away most of his at bats. That’s not news to anyone who has read this column before. The team seems to finally agree.

Garko can’t defend, can’t run and has average power. When he’s not driving in runs, he’s a liability. However, with this team and its lack of established big league quality hitters, he’ll get enough at bats along the way to prove he belongs. Look for Garko to be in the line-up versus lefties.

As for the pitching, there are several question marks there as well. That’s also not good.

For example, which Cliff Lee will show up? I’ll settle for the 2005 Cliff Lee. To expect him to have anywhere close to the season he had in 2008 is fantasy land.

Fausto Carmona and Lee need to eat innings and give them 35 wins between them. If not, there is litle or no chance of post-season play this coming fall.

The rest of the starting staff is chalk-full of question marks.

If Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes stay healthy, they may have big years. Then again, is that likely based on their recent past?

The trio fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation is comparable to the mass of humanity trying to hold down the corner outfield positions. The good news is they are fighting for the fifth spot only right now.

If someone goes down ahead of them (i.e. Reyes), that has a domino effect on the rest of the staff and could make for a long summer on the dish in Cleveland.

As for the pen, it all revolves around the closer.

If Kerry Wood stays healthy, the rest of the pen should be good enough. The Indians have enough experience there to make one feel somewhat comfortable in the middle and late innings.

If Wood goes down, again, the domino effect resulting could create the same musical chair game played with the pen out of necessity in 2008.

By now, you should see where I am going.

I cannot think of an Indians’ season in recent history where the FRAGILITY of key players holds most of the clues as to where this team will end up.

Can Hafner, Pavano, Reyes, and Wood hold up and perform at the level needed for this team to win 90+ games?

We aren’t talking about bit players here. A middle of the order bat, your #3 & #4 starter and the guy you expect to close games are crucial to any team’s success.

Couple that with the question marks with the corner outfield, and you have a team not likely to win its division and earn the right to play in October.

We’ll say 85-77 in 2009 for the Tribe and hope for good health.

If it does break right and these key parts stay relatively healthy and peform, you can add 10 wins to the total, thus allowing this bunch to be playing in October.

In sports, the glass is always half empty until it is full.

That's why you have to have a Plan B. Hopefuly, Mark Shapiro agrees.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

This & That

Luvable Mark Cuban
Mark Cuban was heralded as a free thinking, lovable, players’ owners for years when his team was outstanding. Now he is getting criticism for ripping his players publicly, including texting critical messages to his players right before games.

Which is it? Is he a player’s owner or a meddler?

The truth is, Cuban is a self-promoting, loud-mouth, media whore with money – always has been and always will be.

Currently, he can’t handle the fact that his team is not in the NBA’s top echelon – which in turn means he is personally getting less overall media attention - unless he goes off ofcourse.

The Mavericks are who they are – a little better than average. Deal with it Cuban.

Yea, you get my drift. Even though he lavishes his players with extra goodies, I don’t like an owner who acts like a drunken fan and chases officials on the court and generally makes an ass of himself.

I didn’t like it then and I don’t like it now.

The media cut this guy slack for years because he made good copy. That's no excuse for his antics.

If you are wondering why your teams never won a championship Mark - here it is: your teams were soft then and they remain soft now. The only difference is the win total has gone down, which is easily explained - age & the window of opportunity closed.

Browns
Mangini continues to add former Jets to the Browns’ roster. And no, I don’t have a problem with it.

It’s his show and he is simply bringing in his people on the field just like he is bringing in his folks off the field.

For anyone to criticize him for bringing in guys who played for him without seeing them play extensively smacks of stupidity.

What new CEO, COO, Team President, GM or Head Coach doesn’t bring in people he knows and trusts?

We’ll find out soon enough if they can play.

Draft
Currently, the Browns have three first day picks (first two rounds). As of today, I hope they go skilled position players (WR & RB) with two of those picks to give Brady Quinn some help.

Why?

Yes, I know their defense isn’t any good, but did everyone forget they also set a record for going nearly two months without scoring an offensive touchdown?

An influx of talent and speed at the skilled slots couldn’t hurt.

They also still possess a handful of tradable commodities to make moves with and get better.

One suggestion - pick up an available quality veteran receiver (T. Holt) ASAP and release Donte Stallworth.

Sometimes, you have to simply cut your losses and try again. This regime did not acquire Stallworth, so dumping him and going to that same well again (free agency) makes sense for this regime and possesess low risk.

That is, unless they think they don't need WR help? If so, God help us.

Again, we'll be patient and wait for the plan to unfold.

Cavaliers No D
I am glad Head Coach Mike Brown went off on his team for not playing any D on their recent 3-0 road trip.

I watched the second half of all three games and was amazed by their (Cavs) lack of effort at the defensive end. It was pitiful for a team that prides itself on guarding people.

They didn’t stop penetration, didn’t rotate properly and still didn’t defend the post well enough. Simply put, they depended on their superior talent (aka: LJ) to win those games late. Had they been playing quality playoff teams, those would have been losses.

Defense is mostly about effort – something that wasn’t present on this trip. That has to change, and change soon, if they expect to win a championship.

Besides, if you look at his numbers in 2008-09, James simply has not shown the ability to lift his team to victory against the likes of Boson and LA. Until that changes, they have to defend extremely well against quality playoff teams to win it all.

NCAA Tournament
I haven’t seen nearly enough college basketball to make an educated pick, but I always follow one basic philosophy anyway – pick the team with the most future pros.

I have no idea who that is of course since I haven’t been watching closely. I’ve been too busy watching House re-runs.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Appearing "Soft," TO & Berea Silence

Looking "Soft"
I have seen this before.

The Cavaliers of the early 90s did not win an NBA championship for two reasons - because Michael Jordan was around and because they (Cavs) were “soft” inside, and simply could not rebound well enough in the clutch.

The 2008-09 Cavaliers should win the title this year. We’re on record as saying so and have been for a while. They lead the league in most defensive categories, possess the game’s best player (LJ) with a new and improved team due to the addition of all-star Mo Williams.

Now here is something I did not say back in November that is starting to worry me – the Cavaliers currently look somewhat soft inside (i.e. Price, Nance, Daugherty Era).

Since Lamar Odom torched the Cavaliers in Cleveland, this squad has been getting pounded in the blocks by opposing “bigs.”

It happened again in Boston Friday night when three bench players came in and dominated the post, scoring at will and pushing the Cavaliers’ interior people around all night long.

They abused them in every way possible – which led to the Kevin Garnett-LESS Celtics shooting well over 50% from the field.

That was an embarrassing defensive performance by the Cavaliers, who pride themselves on stopping people.

It’s simple – if they shoot from four feet all night and you shoot from 20 feet, you lose, even without their best all-around player.

Yes, Ben Wallace is out, but he was around when this weakness began to get exposed.

Adding Joe Smith will help space the floor at the offensive end, but it does not solve the problem inside.

This means against certain teams, Cleveland will not be able to go small (play LJ at the 4 and Wally at the 3) come the post-season or risk getting abused inside.

They need to get Wallace back healthy and need to get more physical in the paint if this team expects to win a championship.

Man up fellas.

Back to the Basket
The Cavaliers are not getting many post up buckets. LeBron is either taking long jumpers right now or driving to the hole. He has stopped posting up.

Secondly, either Z no longer wants to post up his 7-3 frame or the coaching staff is having a group brain fart.

We all know Z is primarily a jump shooter now, but once in a while, you have to post him up. It gives everyone else a break offensively and it just might lead to easy buckets and/or free throws.

Come playoff time, you need to be able to score in the blocks in the halfcourt. The Cavs have only two options inside - Z and 23. They simply need to emphasize the post up game more.

LeBron
One could argue LJ had his two worst games in the two biggest games all year.

He shot 5-of-22 against the Lakers in Cleveland – giving the Cavaliers their only home loss all season long – and he went a quiet 5-of-15 versus the Celtics on Friday, a game that could have gone a long way toward sealing home court advantage in the conference for the good guys.

Come on LJ, if you want to be the MVP, you have to play big on the biggest stage. It doesn’t get bigger in the regular season than versus Kobe and in Boston.

Bar Bet Question
Okay Cavs fans, answer this question.

How many division winning banners currently hang in the rafters downtown?

Wrong - just one.

That tells you how pathetic this franchise has been considering it has been around since Nixon was president and he hadn’t even hired plumbers yet.

#2 will go up soon. That’s good news I guess.

TO In Buffalo
Really? I would never have guessed the Bills.

I could see him ending up with New Orleans, San Diego, Carolina or Oakland of course, who will take anyone with a pulse who has not done serious jail time, but Buffalo?

How hard is TO going to run his routes come late November early December when the snow is falling, the wind is blowing in Buffalo, and the Bills, who currently get as much national exposure as the former Montreal Expos, are sitting at 5-7?

As for the Bills taking a shot at TO, it makes sense on their end if you think about it. What do they have to lose?

That coaching staff has done it their way and that has led to absolute mediocre play year after year. That crew is another 7-9 season away from being canned, so throw a bomb and hope for the best?

It's the old "desperate times leads to desperate measures" philosophy at play.

Here’s hoping TO leads the Bills to the playoffs. I have a soft spot for Ralph Wilson’s crew, who came up bridesmaids so often it became tragic.

Alls Quiet In Berea
I hope we start seeing more of their plan soon.

So far, the Browns’ new brain trust has traded the team’s most talented offensive player for the perennial player(s) to be named later, signed a non-descript tight end from Buffalo and re-signed a back-up safety.

That’s it.

Now, I did not expect this regime to make a huge splash in free agency. But it is eerily silent in Berea right now and I’m not sure if that’s by design or these guys have no idea what there are doing – alla Barack’s economic team.

I will remain patient for a while longer.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

New Month - New Thoughts

Browns Spring Cleaning Begins
We aren’t surprised the Browns have started the house cleaning.

That’s common when a new regime takes over a franchise, especially after a four-win campaign on a team loaded with head cases. If I am right, you won't recognize this team come September.

Yes, we are on record as wanting to keep Winslow and deal Edwards, but Mangini obviously felt Winslow was damaged goods - in more ways than one.

When we said a long time ago this team had little or no leadership in the locker room, we meant it.

Look for “Butterfingers” and DA to be next.

If you are going to deal K2 because he’s a pain in the rear and because he has the body of a 10-year vet, then Braylon Edwards can’t be too far behind. He (Edward) doesn’t have Winslow’s talent and is also apt at running his mouth.

As for Anderson, he’s due that $5 million bonus on March 5, so he should be dealt this week. We are somewhat surprised he wasn’t dealt on day one of free agency.

Perhaps there isn’t much of a market for the former Pro Bowler. Remember, there certainly wasn’t last March on day one of free agency when he became available for four hours (from midnight to four A.M.) before “the wizard” (Phil Savage) signed him to an extension.

That, my friends, was the beginning of the end to the Savage/Crennel Era in Cleveland.

I would attempt to get first day picks for both Edwards and Anderson, and if I couldn’t, I would try to move them for established NFL players that fill holes – something the Browns have plenty of.

Trading former Pro Bowlers, who are in their prime age-wise, for second day picks, just doesn't seem right to me - even with all their issues.

We also would not be surprised to see the team’s best defensive player in 2008, Shaun Rodgers, be dealt after his not so private request to be moved.

Moving Rodgers now makes sense in that his value is at an all-time high after a Pro Bowl season. The opposite is true of Edwards and DA - thanks to the lack of stones and foresight of the previous regime.

Am I concerned Mangini and company will leave Brady Quinn with no weapons in 2009?

Yes - even if Mangini brings in a couple of quality receivers, it will take time for the group to get its timing down.

Nonetheless, we will wait and see if there is a method to their madness before commenting further.

One final thought on Winslow.

This corner felt all along he had Hall of Fame talent. His play on the field when healthy did not change our view in the least. However, we once again found out the hard way that today’s modern day athlete is “different.”

If he (K2) were not such a pain off the field, he would still be a Cleveland Brown – even with all the injuries. But he is, and now he’s gone.

We understand Mangini’s desire to get “high character” guys, as he described them in his initial press conference. All coaches talk about character, but most don’t really follow through.

Mangini learned his craft under Mr. Bill, who does not tolerate a “me first” atmosphere in the locker room. Belichick was even able to tame Randy Moss the past two years.

Of course, having three Super Bowl rings and a locker room full of outstanding players also helps quiet potential problems.

We shall see if Mangini can create the same atmosphere in Cleveland. That would be nice.

More importantly, he’d (Mangini) better win soon, or the fans and media will turn on his approach quickly – especially if the players he casts off have success elsewhere.

That’s just the nature of sports.

Notice, at no time did we mention the new GM of the Cleveland Browns. That’s because Mangini has all the power. He was hired first and he signed off on the hiring of his buddy to fill the GM role.

Until that individual (George Coco Crisp or something to that effect) actually shows us something, we will put it all on Mangini.

Speaking of Character
It happened quietly, but LB Andra Davis left the Browns via free agency. From all accounts, all he did was work hard every day at his craft, regardless of the team's lack of success during his long tenure in Cleveland. He also carried himself with class off the field.

No, he wasn't a first division LB, but that doesn't matter here. The fact is he is the type of player Mangini wants in uniform - hopefully, with more raw skills.

Good luck to Andra Davis in his future endeavors.

Matt Cassel
Scott Pioli must have incriminating photos of Bill Belichick in hand.

That’s the only explanation for New England dealing Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for a #2 pick. Cassel, under tremendous pressure replacing a Hall of Famer, clearly showed he can play from day one.

Yet, Mr. Bill dealt him to K.C. for a mere second rounder.

To this day, I am astonished teams place such a high value on draft picks over proven NFL talent.

I just don't get it and never will!

Here is my simple test to prove the point. You can do this at home yourself without props. And it will make you look smart at dinner parties with those who like to talk sports while stuffing their faces while drinking like fish.

Ask yourself this question anytime a player is dealt for a draft choice - Where would (fill in the blank) go in this year’s draft?

In Cassel’s case, he would be the first quarterback drafted.

And please don’t tell me there are quarterbacks in this draft with more up side. No NFL GM would take a rookie to run their team over a guy who led the Patriots to an 11- win season. And he didn’t do it by “managing” the game either. Cassel put up Pro Bowl numbers.

This gets us back to our initial thought – why did Bill give him away? Let’s just say Pioli should not expect anything wrapped with a bow on it from Mr. Bill next December. The gift already arrived.

Manny
In the middle of an economic downturn, the guy turns down a 2-year/$45 million offer from the only team who wants him – the Dodgers. What stones!

Here’s the rub – the Dodgers are likely to cave at some point and give him what he, and his arrogant agent, Scott Boras, want.

Only in America!

Cavalier Bigs
I am still waiting for the Cavaliers to add another “big” soon. I just have not seen enough improvement from JJ Hickson to expect him to carry 20 minutes a night come playoff time. Has anyone seen Joe Smith?

Say It Ain't So
If the Cavaliers truly had a chance to get Shaq Daddy before the deadline for role players, a rookie (JJ Hickson) and a #1 pick, and didn’t pull the trigger, Danny Ferry should have his head examined.

I’ll just assume the rumors were false. To think otherwise would make my head explode.