Cleveland Indians (2009)

Here is my early take on the Tribe this season.

They have a number of average players in their day-in-day-out line-up and several huge question marks on the pitching staff heading into 2009.

Let's go position by position.

The catching is strong with Kelly Shoppach behind the dish and Victor Martinez behind him. That’s right – behind him.

Shoppach is a good receiver, can handle a staff and he hits for power. After the 2008 season he had, he deserves 500 at bats in 2009.

Victor Martinez should get the bulk of the work at first base. The Indians need his bat to come back to life following last year’s injury-plagued season – 20 home runs, 100 RBI and a .300 batting average from him are a must if the Tribe expects to contend this summer.

Estrubal Cabrera is very good defensively at second base, but he needs to hit .280 with some decent power numbers and 20+ stolen bases to be considered a first division player at his position.

Jhonny Peralta is who we’ve always said he is – a run producing shortstop with average range at best.

When he stays off the breaking balls down and away, he is a middle of the order hitter. When he doesn’t, he’s a liability at shortstop, because during those droughts, he doesn’t hit well enough to offset his lack of range.

I'm curious why they haven't placed DeRosa at 2B, Cabrera at SS and Peralta at 3B to open the season. Defensively, that seems to make more sense - especially based on reports that DeRosa can play 2B relatively well.

We'll assume it's still about not hurting anyone's (Peralta's) feelings.

We have never seen Mark DeRosa play, therefore, we have no comment for now and hope he gives them 20 home runs and a minimum of 80 RBI at third base.

Franklin Gutierrez, who we considered an outstanding fourth outfielder because of his ability to play all three outfield positions well, is gone. That’s unfortunate. We liked his talent level more than Ben Francisco – who the Tribe is going to play in left field again this season.

At this time, there is also nothing special about Shin-Soo Choo and Davis Delluci – players who appear to be competing for the team’s corner outfield at bats once again in 2009.

Basically, nothing has changed from a year ago as far as the outfield is concerned. That’s not good. These guys simply don’t scare opposing pitchers.

It looks as though these corner outfield spots are being rented until one or more of the team’s “top prospects” are ready to play at this level. Again, until we get to see these guys play for a while, we have no comment on the “prospects.”

Centerfield is manned by one of the game’s best players – Grady Sizemore.

We still think he’s capable of hitting for a much higher batting average if he cut down his swing, especially with two strikes, but when your other outfielders are who they are, I’ll cut him some slack for trying to be a run producer at the plate instead of a table setter.

We’ve discussed Travis Hafner’s situation at nauseam in the past.

We’ll keep it simple – he needs to hit .280 or better and give them a minimum of 25 home runs and 90 RBI to be a middle of the pack American League DH. Anything less would mean he is doing more damage than good as a middle of the order hitter – especially for what he earns.

This brings me to the batting order based on what the roster will look like. Here is how I would open the season.
(CF)Sizemore
(2B)DeRosa
(1B)Martinez
(C)Shoppach
(DH) Hafner
(SS) Peralta
(RF) Choo
(2B) Cabrera
(LF) Francisco

As for Ryan Garko, we still see him as another player with a limited upside. Simply - we have Shoppach taking away most of his at bats. That’s not news to anyone who has read this column before. The team seems to finally agree.

Garko can’t defend, can’t run and has average power. When he’s not driving in runs, he’s a liability. However, with this team and its lack of established big league quality hitters, he’ll get enough at bats along the way to prove he belongs. Look for Garko to be in the line-up versus lefties.

As for the pitching, there are several question marks there as well. That’s also not good.

For example, which Cliff Lee will show up? I’ll settle for the 2005 Cliff Lee. To expect him to have anywhere close to the season he had in 2008 is fantasy land.

Fausto Carmona and Lee need to eat innings and give them 35 wins between them. If not, there is litle or no chance of post-season play this coming fall.

The rest of the starting staff is chalk-full of question marks.

If Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes stay healthy, they may have big years. Then again, is that likely based on their recent past?

The trio fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation is comparable to the mass of humanity trying to hold down the corner outfield positions. The good news is they are fighting for the fifth spot only right now.

If someone goes down ahead of them (i.e. Reyes), that has a domino effect on the rest of the staff and could make for a long summer on the dish in Cleveland.

As for the pen, it all revolves around the closer.

If Kerry Wood stays healthy, the rest of the pen should be good enough. The Indians have enough experience there to make one feel somewhat comfortable in the middle and late innings.

If Wood goes down, again, the domino effect resulting could create the same musical chair game played with the pen out of necessity in 2008.

By now, you should see where I am going.

I cannot think of an Indians’ season in recent history where the FRAGILITY of key players holds most of the clues as to where this team will end up.

Can Hafner, Pavano, Reyes, and Wood hold up and perform at the level needed for this team to win 90+ games?

We aren’t talking about bit players here. A middle of the order bat, your #3 & #4 starter and the guy you expect to close games are crucial to any team’s success.

Couple that with the question marks with the corner outfield, and you have a team not likely to win its division and earn the right to play in October.

We’ll say 85-77 in 2009 for the Tribe and hope for good health.

If it does break right and these key parts stay relatively healthy and peform, you can add 10 wins to the total, thus allowing this bunch to be playing in October.

In sports, the glass is always half empty until it is full.

That's why you have to have a Plan B. Hopefuly, Mark Shapiro agrees.