Friday, April 24, 2009

Pre-NFL Draft Entry

What I Would Do On Draft Day If I Ran The Browns
I have been asked by a couple friends – yes, I have a couple friends – what I would do if I were the Browns on draft day.

And since I pride myself of first guessing instead of second guessing, I’ll take a whack at it.

Note that I did not spend every Saturday afternoon watching college football this past Fall. However, I did see enough to make a few observations on a handful of this weekend’s potential picks.

Plan A involves taking WR Michael Crabtree with the fifth overall pick.

Keep it simple stupid (KISS) – the Browns need playmakers and they are weak at wide receiver. If he’s not a meathead, I take him (MC) and have my #1 receiver for the next eight years.

Of course, I have no knowledge of his off-the-field manners. My picks are based on talent alone at this point.

Secondly, I would only deal “Butterfingers” for my price.

If it’s a late #1 (i.e. Giants), I would want a WR also coming back (i.e. Smith or Hickson) and a second day pick. If it’s a mid-#1, I’ll be happy with that and a second day pick.

In our last entry, we noted we would keep Edwards unless we were overwhelmed. I still feel that way as you can tell by what I want in return.

If someone meets my price, I would then use that pick (i.e. Giants’ #1) and one of my second rounders and trade back up into the middle of the first round and take one of the three following players in this order of importance – L Rey Maualuga, DB Malcolm Jenkins, or RB Knowshon Moreno.

If I get a mid-first rounder for Edwards, I have my extra #1 pick in place to take one of the players off my short list, and I keep my two second rounders. Yes, I know that price is likely to high for other NFL teams.

I happen to think, as stated in last week’s entry, that Crabtree, Maualuga and Jenkins will all have long and successful NFL careers.

Simply put - I want two of these players on the Browns’ roster by draft’s end.

Also, I believe that Moreno is the best all-around back in this draft – based on the limited college football I have seen this past season.

My thinking is simple – if I’m spending mid-first round money on a guy who carries the ball, I want a player who will be on the field all three downs, including on 3rd and 7.

That doesn’t mean I have totally soured on Chris Wells. But his past injuries, coupled with the fact that he has little experience coming out of the backfield at OSU, tells me Moreno is a slightly better investment.

Finally, I would use my leftover second rounder(s) to take the best player(s) available on the board – short of a QB. That happens to be their deepest position, with one guy who made the Pro Bowl, DA, (albeit under unusual circumstances), and another who they already invested heavily in (a #1 & #2 for Brady Quinn).

And no, I don’t believe the ridiculous rumors the Browns are going to take Mark Sanchez at #5 and deal Quinn.

Why the hell would they take a QB with that high a pick when they have HUGE holes to fill elsewhere?

I’ll assume Mangini isn’t a total moron and he’s just posturing in case others want that pick to take Sanchez and are willing to pay a huge price for it.

Finally, If I were the Browns, I would be aggressive in trading back up on day #2 and acquiring guys they really like who begin to slide. I am a big proponent of quality picks over quantity of picks.

In other words, target certain guys you love and go get them. If I also have to deal 2010 picks to do so - fine.

If I can’t get what I want for Edwards, I would go to Plan B, which involves keeping “Butterfingers” in 2009 and hope he has a huge year next to Crabtree.

That would be a win-win for all concerned – Quinn, Edwards and the Browns. I would deal with his (BE) potential free agency situation at the appropriate time.

In Plan B, I keep BE, still take Crabtree at 5 and use my second round picks to try to get back into the first round and chase down one of those players (LB, DB, RB)mentioned earlier.

If I can’t make that happen, then I turn to Plan C and OSU’s Wells, hoping he slips late in the first round and try to move up a few slots from the fifth pick in round 2to acquire him.

In that scenario, I get depth at RB to go along with my playmaker at WR.

In other words, having Edwards, who teams want, and two second rounders, gives Cleveland enough versatility and wiggle room to get back into the first round if they see fit after taking Crabtree.

That would be my goal – to come away with two impact players (Crabtree and either Maualuga or Jenkins). Moreno is my fourth choice on that short list.

Notice, I, unlike others, want them to take offense early. I have already stated in past entries why I believe that makes sense for this team, even though most folks want them to draft defense early and often.

But again, I’m not “most folks.”

Here’s another reason why they should go my route – impact skilled position players (i.e. guys who touch the ball) can make a huge impact on your NFL team in year 1 if you nail the pick (i.e. Adrian Peterson in MN).

Rarely do defensive players have the same level of early impact.

Mark Sanchez Love Fest
Speaking of Sanchez, it seems to me the less Pro teams have of you on tape, the more likely you will move up in the draft prior to draft day instead of slipping.

This year’s hot item is USC QB Mark Sanchez, who has just 16 college starts to go along with some good looking workouts when he’s wearing a t-shirt and shorts while throwing to his buddies in the Southern California sun.

I have no idea if Sanchez will be a good pro or not. He looked really good in the Bowl game he played in, so his stock went way up.

Can anyone say “JaMarcus Russell,” who will have a hard time keeping his starting job in Oakland now that Jeff Garcia is in town.

We questioned that pick then, and so far, he (JR) looks more like Tim Couch than Peyton Manning. For his sake, I hope he figures it out.

I know this much – prior to January, no-one, I repeat no one, had Sanchez rated as a top-10 pick. Now, he’s the hottest thing since the pet rock.

Again, I like Sanchez of the little I've seen. But that's the point - I've seen little of him. Plus, he's playing at USC, where you have tons of NFL talent around you. That tends to make you look better than you are at times - especially when you break down pro careers of recent USC picks on the offensive side of the ball.

Just giving you something to think about.

My guess is if the scouts and draft gurus had three year’s worth of film on him (Sanchez), they would find flaws and he wouldn’t be such a hot commodity right now.

I also believe if he (Sanchez) went 18-of-35 with two TD passes and one pick in his recent Bowl appearance, he would be considered a mid to late first rounder at best.

Perhaps that’s one reason why over half of these guys fail – including first day picks.

Wear A Mask Next Time
This leads me to another mindbender. The Falcons just robbed K.C. and they didn’t even have to use a weapon in carrying out their dastardly deed.

How do you trade a future first ballot Hall of Famer (TE Tony Gonzalez), who is coming off a 90+ catch season, for a mere second round pick – and next year’s #2 at that?

Now, perhaps Gonzalez demanded a trade. So what. If I don’t get close to equal value (i.e. a mid first rounder and a second day pick, or two second rounders), I keep him. Period.

Yes, I’ll Watch Some Of It
I will actually will watch some of the draft tomorrow to see what happens. Thank goodness they cut the time back to 10 minutes in-between picks.

Now if they could cut it back to five minutes in-between first round selections, I might stick around longer.

Don't Even Try to Figure These Guys (Morons) Out
I would NEVER invest millions in a guy who flunked a pre-draft drug test HE KNEW WAS COMING.

Yea, that’s you Percy Harvin!

I know what you are thinking – what about Randy Moss?. Right. For every Randy Moss, there are 10 morons who don’t’ make it.

Regardless, I’m sure there will be some NFL team that takes him in round 1 and the GM will explain it away to the media as “a kid who did a dumb thing.”

Which begs the question – If he’s dumb enough to do such a dumb thing prior to having millions, what kind of mischief do you think he’ll get into once you pay him?

Till next time!

No comments: