Game #7 Prelude

Game #7 Prelude
Based on history and current circumstances, Cavalier fans should not be expecting James & company to be playing next week. The odds of winning a game #7 in Boston are slim at best – even with arguably the planet’s best player wearing a wine and gold uniform.

Why you ask?

There is a reason teams fight so hard in the regular season for home court advantage. Playing a game #7 in your building gives you a decisive edge.

First, players, has we have stated over and over again, are more comfortable and generally play better in familiar surroundings (see Celtics’ point-guard Rondo’s numbers in the series).

Secondly, the officials let you get away with more holding, shoving and generally, more physical play in your building. That blocking call against you on the road turns into a charge in your favor more often than not at home, etc… etc…

The opposition’s role players tend to be out to lunch on the road. The crowd, the intensity the defenders display and the magnitude of the game often overwhelms average players in huge game as this one upcoming.

The home team also gets a great lift from the home fans, which are right on top of the action in a basketball arena. Coaches don’t have to worry about players not being ready to give 110% because the fans make sure everyone wearing the home whites will be charged up to perform.

Of all the major team sports, playing in your building in basketball gives the home team the largest advantage going in and the greatest margin for error for those reasons above and more.

Does this mean the Cavaliers have no chance to advance? Of course not. But here is a sober assessment of what must happen for the Cavaliers and Pistons to meet in the conference semi-finals next week.

Obviously, LJ must have a monster game. My 10-year daughter even knows that.

He was on pace for such a contest in game #5 with his team up three at intermission and James sitting on 23 points at the break. Unfortunately, the Celtics adjusted at halftime and James became passive in the third quarter, leading to an eventual Celtic victory. That can’t happen on Sunday.

James must have a huge all-around game from beginning to end. He must score early and often (40+ sounds about right), distribute effectively, control tempo, rebound the basketball, defend and make big plays and the right decisions with the ball down the stretch in order for the Cavaliers to win.

That’s asking a lot, but the Cavs' roster dictates he plays huge tomorrow if the Cavaliers have any hope of advancing.

His teammates will of course need to give him some help. The loss of Gibson hurts. Last year, Gibson delivered from time to time on the road in the playoffs. He won’t be in uniform tomorrow due to injury. That means Wally, Z and Joe Smith must all get in double figures – with one of the three having a big offensive game, perhaps 20or more, to get them over the top.

The Celtics will simply not allow James alone to beat them.

If you watch the first half replay of game #5, Boston did not tilt its defense in James’ direction as much in the first half of that contest as it did in the previous four games. As a result, James had 23 at the break and the Cavaliers led. That changed in the second half. The Celtics will make someone else besides James beat them tomorrow, so the role players – all 11 of them – must be ready to contribute.

The Cavaliers as a team must be strong with the basketball in game #7.

Too many times in this series in Boston, Cleveland players has had the ball knocked loose or players have stumbled while trying to make plays, which led to turnovers and buckets at the other end. James, West and Wally especially must take better care of the ball. All three have had their moments turnover-wise. James has made bad decisions with the basketball while Wally and West have not been strong with the ball on the road.

Remember, the officials will allow the Celtics to grab, hold and shove at home. That’s just life in the NBA, on the road, against a good defensive team that accumulated 66 wins in the regular season. No use complaining about it – just play through it.

Coach Mike Brown must also push all the right buttons.

If it means playing James 48 minutes if the game dictates that - so be it. If it means giving the Celtics a new look - go for it. If it means going very small and making sure all five players on the floor can score the basketball - do it. That would mean Wallace and Andy both on the bench at the same time for stretches.

The Cavalier coaching staff must also use timeouts wisely and not allow the Celtics to have 10-0 or 12-2 runs. One of those runs could spell the end of the Cavalier season.

Furthermore, Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league at coming up with positive offensive possessions off time-outs – that’s coaching. Brown and friends must improve in that area immediately.

Good free throw shooting is especially imperative on the road. The Cavaliers, and James especially who should spend a lot of time at the stripe, need to be at 80% or better.

Finally, the Cavaliers must close out quarters much better in Boston. The Cavaliers need to be mindful of that – especially on the road in a game #7.

They (Cavaliers) will also need some help.

Two of Boston’s best three players – Garnett, Pierce and Allen – must be controlled in order for the Cavs to expect to advance. Defensively, that’s a difficult task, but so far in the series, that has happened more often than not – especially with Allen, who seems frustrated and confused at times.

In order to slow down their top offensive weapons, the Cavaliers must continue to give the Celtic role players open looks. That allowed Rondo to have a huge game #5 at home, but he turned in a poor performance in game #6 in Cleveland against the same defensive philosophy. The Cavaliers have no choice. They must hope Rondo and company don’t play well tomorrow. If they do, you tip your hat and go on vacation for the summer.

The rebounding will also be key tomorrow. If the Cavaliers can rebound misses effectively and get out and run, the defense will not have time to set up and take James' penetration away. The Cavs need to force the action in the open court and you can't do that without forcing misses and getting the board.

And finally, bench play will be huge in game #7.

Prior to Gibson going down, one could make the argument the Cavalier bench, at six through eighth, was one of the best in the league with Gibson, Andy and Joe Smith as the first three to see action. With Gibson out, that changes the equation. Regardless, Andy, Smith and company will need to give the Cavaliers quality minutes tomorrow.

After all this, the bottom line remains the same however – none of this matters unless 23 dominates. He’ll be the best talent on the floor – so they have a chance.

This is a perfect stage for James to build on the legacy he started last year in game #5 versus the Pistons – where he single-handedly carried the Cavaliers to victory in a hostile environment. That one game did more for his reputation than any single game he’s played to date.

It’s time for a sequel.

If LJ goes off tomorrow and the Cavaliers advance winning a game #7 in Boston against a team that has not lost at home in the playoffs and accumulated a league-best 66 regular season wins, then he truly has taken the next step toward greatness.

Unfortunately, like we said when this series started - we liked Boston in seven and still do. Our heart says James and company can do it, but our basketball IQ tells us otherwise.

Indians
At the quarter mark, it is time for a quick Cleveland Indian evaluation.

The starting pitching, with the noticeable exception of CC’s April meltdown, has been very good. The starters have more than kept the Tribe in games to date.

The bullpen has been mediocre at best. That’s the one major difference between the Indians of 2007, when they had the best pen in the game, and 2008.

The defense has been average.

This team simply does not have many outstanding individual defensive players – but they are getting better. Sizemore is excellent in center (a Gold Glove winner), Gut is very good in right and Cabrera is very good in the middle infield. At the beginning of 2007, out of the three mentioned, only Sizemore was on the roster.

The offense has been dreadful.

Last year, several players had solid seasons. So far in 2008, the Indians do not have one player that is overachieving or having what can be considered a good season at the plate. Hafner’s continued struggles have had a ripple effect throughout the line-up. Victor is not getting many pitches to drive – even though his average is above .300, the Indians have used a number of different line-ups, and they continue to strike out too much as a team.

What is most frustrating for those that understand the art of hitting is the fact that they are giving up at bats, not working the count nor making adjustments in-game. This means either they are lacking in concentration or not listening to Eric Wedge and company. Either way, that is not a good sign.

What have they as an organization to adjust to their offensive woes – bring up Ben Francisco. Many felt he should have been on the roster from day one. That’s a start, but certainly not enough.

The good news is they are playing in what looks like a relatively weak division in 2008. How else do you explain everyone around .500 or under? With all their offensive woes and shaky bullpen,, the Indians are in first place in mid-May.

If the bullpen can get straightened out and half the line-up reaches its past productionn levels, they (Indians) should be in fairly good shape in that division.

We still believe a big bat is needed in the middle of that order, as we stated back in March. Cleveland will likely try to fill that need before the end of July trading deadline. Remember, it's usually easier to deal for a bat than an arm.

If you folks still don't like my pre-season Bary Bonds suggestion, how does Ken Griffey sound?