Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Ravens - Browns Preview & More

Ravens - Browns Prognosis
I hate to be a broken record, but this one should come down to which quarterback makes a couple big plays and fewest mistakes. With that logic, and with the way the Browns’ offensive line has functioned recently, I believe Derek Anderson will outplay rookie Joe Flaco, and Cleveland should get to .500 with the win.

It should be a relatively low scoring game – so if you are a sick puppy and like to wager – take the under. The one variable that could alter that prognosis is if either one, or both of these signal-callers, turns it over and gives the opponent a short field to work with on one or more occasions.

So I’m going with the Browns – 20-13.

Quite frankly, the Browns have the edge coming in – they are relatively healthy, at home, playing their best football of the season (winning three of four), and have the more experienced quarterback. There is NO excuse to lose this one.

This is a seminole moment in the season.

If you are sitting at 4-4 at the half way mark, you can realistically convince yourself, and the fans & media who want to believe, you have a chance to compete for a post-season spot if you are the Browns. I don’t completely buy that argument – but it is plausible. If you lose another divisional game, in your building, and fall to 3-5, it is over unless lightning strikes.

Because the talent level is so close at the professional level, the large majority of NFL games boil down to not giving up big plays defensively and not turning it over offensively. This is of course, assuming the special teams’ battle is even. This game falls right in line with that thinking.

The Browns have played reasonably well defensively in '08 – surprising many, including this observer. Of course, the bar was set pretty low going into the season. Bu the facts are the facts. They are no longer near the bottom or at the bottom of the league in most statistical categories on that side of the ball – compared to 2007. Therefore, I expect the Browns’ defense to play well against a relatively weak offense.

By the way, when have the Ravens EVER had a good offense? Answer – never.

That, my friends, puts it on the offense to win against the #2 ranked defense in the NFL.

In the past, it was usually a question of when, future Hall of Famer Ed Reed came up with the back-breaking pick versus the Browns, not if. Anderson MUST avoid that tendency this time around. It would also be nice if the "O" line can consistently get to first ballot Hall of Famer Ray Lewis and keep him from roaming sideline to sideline and creating havoc.

Notice, I am always concerned when playing a team that has HOFers on it. Those guys tend to make big plays that win games. They must always be accounted for.

I expect the Browns’ brain trust to go conservative – emphasizing the running game and the safe underneath passes early in an attempt to avoid turnovers and build up DA's on-again, off-again confidence.

Look for Jamaal Lewis to get a season-high in carries. CHUD and company realize Flaco and the Ravens’ offense is dysfunctional without help from the defense. He (CHUD) will do all he can to avoid giving Baltimore the short field it seeks.

Winslow Revisited
Someone will have to explain to me some day what took place last week in Berea.

The Browns fined Winslow big time and suspended him for one game. Then, they reduced the fine, but because he missed all week of practice, he did not play on Sunday. Since the Browns won, no one complained.

This observer does't allow the fact that the team earned a quality road win overwhelm the moronic reasoning involved with the decision-making process that came out of Berea.

Again, if I am a member of the Lerner family, I should be concerned right now. My GM looked confused and in over his head. The fact the Browns won on Sunday should NOT make me feel better about what took place and how it was handled.

Meanwhile, Crennel came out looking like the good cop and nice guy – that he is. And Winslow, in the mind of the fans, is selfish and not needed since Cleveland is 2-0 without him in ‘08. Did I mention 95% of fans don’t know $#@? I did, didn’t I?

Cavaliers
I noticed something on opening night against the Celtics that bothered me. Late in the third quarter, or early in the fourth quarter, Head Coach Mike Brown had 23 and Moe Williams BOTH on the bench resting. The Cavaliers were of course outscored during that stretch and eventually lost a relatively close game.

Understand this – unless the Cavs are in garbage time, 23 and Williams should NEVER both be on the bench! Period

The whole idea of adding another scorer was take some of the offensive burden off LJ. That is true when they are both playing and especially true when LJ is resting. Watching the Cavs try to score in the half court the past several years with James resting is equivalent to someone scrapping their long fingernails on a chalkboard – over and over again. It’s unbearable!

With Williams on the floor, you at least have a chance – especially with the shot clock running down. He does have the ability to create on his own and finish. However, he can’t do it if he’s sitting next to James drinking Gatorade.

Hopefully, one of Brown’s numerous assistants will suggest they bag that approach. There are 81 games left to play.

CC
I heard a report the Brewers were going to offer CC a four-year/$25 million deal.
I doubt that's true. It would be hard for me to believe that franchise can afford that kind of cash. However, if true, it will be interesting to see if CC will feel "comfortable" in Milwaukee.

Something tells me he will end up on either coast for more years and more $. If I had to guess, I would say the Yankees or the Angels, in that order. I'm guessing he would love to play at home (SF). However, they (SF) were snakebit once already offering big cash to a pitcher (Zito). I doubt the Giants will revisit that approach.

And no, he's not coming back to Cleveland, unless Shapiro and company can at minimum offer him 6-7 years and $25-30 million a year. That ain't happenin'.

Not bad cash for a guy who has underachieved in October.

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